With the NBA All-Star break set to come to an end on Thursday, all eyes are on the stretch run to the postseason. This isn’t a huge deal for the teams at the very ends of the spectrum — squads like Golden State and Phoenix know their playoff prospects at this point — but for the ones in the middle, the next however many games mean it’s time to prepare for a postseason push.
Currently, there are six teams in the Eastern Conference and seven teams in the Western Conference within three games of the 8-seed in either direction. Whether it’s a team that’s 2.5 games up like the Brooklyn Nets in the East, or a team that’s three games down like the Los Angeles Lakers in the West, every game really does count for those 13 squads down the stretch.
We decided to take a look at those franchises and answer a simple question: Are they going to end up making the playoffs this season? This will, in all likelihood, end up being completely wrong, but for some of these teams, their predictions seem rather easy.
Eastern Conference
6. Brooklyn Nets (2.5 games up on 8-seed)
The Nets have been a revelation this season. They are viewed as the best of the not-elite teams in the East — although that might not be the case depending on what you think about the Indiana Pacers. Brooklyn plays really, really hard, Kenny Atkinson is a fantastic coach, the front office built a roster full of promise, and the team boasts an All-Star in D’Angelo Russell who can win them close games and isn’t afraid of big moments.
The big concern with the Nets is their schedule. According to Tankathon (we recommend having this link up throughout the post), Brooklyn has the third-toughest schedule of any team in the NBA with 23 games remaining. Still, we’re buying the Nets making it at the end of the day, especially with Caris LeVert back to serve as a dangerous second option next to Russell.
VERDICT: In.
7. Charlotte Hornets (0.5 games up on 8-seed)
Charlotte is in a similar boat as Brooklyn. It has an All-Star guard who can pull off the amazing in Kemba Walker and its schedule down the stretch is unreal — the Hornets have the second-toughest schedule left with 25 games on the horizon, including a pair of matchups against the Warriors.
To make matters worse, the Hornets have a pretty even split of home and road games. Thirteen of their remaining matchups are in Charlotte, 12 are elsewhere. That’s huge because the Hornets have the best home record of any team in the East outside of the top-5 (19-9) and are god awful away from home (8-21). Still, for reasons we’ll get into a little farther down the road, that schedule is just a little too difficult, and while Walker is out of his mind, can the rest of the roster keep him from shouldering the entire load?
VERDICT: Out.
8. Detroit Pistons
Is there a weirder team in the NBA than the Pistons? Blake Griffin rules, Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson have basically been exactly what you should expect out of them, and then, there’s not much. They have a really good coach who knows how to make the playoffs in Dwane Casey, and with the seventh-easiest schedule left in the league, it’s possible they can navigate all of this on the strength of having a superstar, a coach who has a track record of success, and a pair of guys who are happy to be in supporting roles.
The depth is a major question. Trading Reggie Bullock away for Svi Mykhailiuk might pay dividends down the road, but for now, it hurts, even though Wayne Ellington joined on the buyout market. Still, that schedule — along with the fact that the Southeast Division may cannibalize itself — sets them up well for the stretch run.
VERDICT: In.
9. Miami Heat (Tied with 8-seed, out on tiebreaker)
One can’t help but wonder if this season would be way, way different for the Heat if they were able to pull off a trade for Jimmy Butler. Now, Miami is in a fight to make the playoffs, face an uphill climb to make it, and is legitimately at risk of missing the postseason in Dwyane Wade’s final year as a professional.
Getting Goran Dragic and Derrick Jones Jr. back from injuries helps. They don’t have the star power that they did during Wade’s prime, but Miami is a deep squad and Erik Spoelstra is as good of a coach as there is. However, the Heat are weirdly not good at home (11-16 at American Airlines Arena), have the seventh-toughest schedule left in the league, and while their defense has been great this season, can their offense consistently score when they need to? This is really, really tough.
VERDICT: Out.
10. Orlando Magic (0.5 games back of 8-seed)
The Magic have been awesome during the weeks leading up to the All-Star break, winning five games in a row and riding the second-longest win streak in the league. It’s why their lone move at the trade deadline was flipping Jonathon Simmons for Markelle Fultz — this team thinks it has the potential to make the playoffs for the first time since 2011-12.
Banking on Orlando to make the playoffs is, admittedly, very risky. But with the third-easiest schedule left in the league, a team that has been cooking as of late, and a collection of really solid players led by All-Star big man Nikola Vucevic, why not?
VERDICT: In.
11. Washington Wizards (3 games back of 8-seed)
You can guess where this is going. Washington has quite the uphill battle ahead of it, and while Bradley Beal is awesome and Dwight Howard is on the road to recovery, and while their schedule is manageable, it’s just too big of a hole.
VERDICT: Out.
Western Conference
4-6. Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets, Utah Jazz (3, 2, and 1 games up on the 8-seed, respectively)
All of these teams are going to make it. The Trail Blazers just know how to win games in the regular season. The Rockets have James Harden and are getting Clint Capela back. The Jazz had an absolutely brutal schedule to open the year, weathered the storm, and now have the second-easiest schedule in the league. The more interesting discussion is who ends up with the best record of this group — if I had to make a prediction, give me Utah — but as for the playoffs, they’re all in.
VERDICT: In.
7. San Antonio Spurs (1 game up on 8-seed)
Here’s where things start getting tough. San Antonio is a really, really good team, and wagering against Gregg Popovich to miss the playoffs is a fool’s errand. The Spurs also have a relatively easy schedule — the 19th-hardest in the NBA — and while they have struggled on the road, their biggest road trip, which annually happens when the rodeo comes to town, is in the past.
Is this the best Spurs team? Of course not, and it was never going to be. It’s still a really good squad led by a pair of battle-tested veterans in DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge. They boast quite the arsenal of shooters, Derrick White (who was absent for a recent four-game losing streak) is back, and betting against San Antonio is just too risky. They make it in.
VERDICT: In.
8. Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are good, their schedule down the stretch is relatively easy, and also, they might have the hardest path to the postseason of any team left. Doc Rivers has worked his magic so far this year, but the job became so much tougher when Tobias Harris and others were traded to Philadelphia for Wilson Chandler and Landry Shamet, both of whom are good players but not game-changers.
Los Angeles has collection of dudes who can play, from the immortal Lou Williams, to Danilo Gallinari, to Montrezl Harrell. At this point, it’s about whether they can do it frequently enough without a guy of Harris’ caliber in tow. Complicating all of this: If L.A. makes the playoffs, it gives up its first round draft pick in 2019. If the Clippers misses out? That pick stays with them.
VERDICT: Out.
9. Sacramento Kings (1 game back of 8-seed)
Man, the Kings rule. They play at a breakneck pace and you can tell that everyone has bought in to what they’re doing. In response, De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Marvin Bagley have turned into one heck of a young core, and at the deadline, Sacramento went out and acquired Harrison Barnes, who should give them a little more scoring and floor spacing.
A major concern is that while Sacramento has the 10th-easiest remaining schedule left, the Kings have struggled on the road, sitting at 19-11 in their building and 11-16 elsewhere. Of their remaining 25 games, they have to travel to play 14 of them, a brutal break for a team that has a legitimate home court advantage. They’re the team I want to make the playoffs the most — watching them against the Warriors, even if it was for four games, would be a blast — but the Kings may be a year away from being really, really good.
VERDICT: Out.
10. Los Angeles Lakers (3 games back of 8-seed)
Listen, I’m about as happy as this as you are. The Lakers don’t have Lonzo Ball right now, they possess the ninth-hardest remaining schedule in the league, and it seems like the team is perpetually one two-game losing streak away from Luke Walton getting fired and replaced by someone who went to middle school with Anthony Davis. All things considered, we should probably assume they’re going to miss out.
At the same time, I just can’t say “LeBron James is going to miss the postseason” until his team is mathematically eliminated from making it. He might have to average a 35-point triple-double for the rest of the season and play 44 minutes a game and then look exhausted as the Lakers get swept in the first round of the playoffs, but he sounds like he’s ready to do all of that. Plus Los Angeles was comfortably a playoff team prior to his injury, and while a billion things have happened in Laker Land between then and now, this is a completely different team with LeBron on the floor.
VERDICT: In.
