The Washington Wizards haven’t produced a 50-win season since 1978-79. In the eyes of some prognosticators, 2017-18 was supposed to be the year for that artificial barrier to come down, especially after an encouraging, 49-win performance that featured a playoff series victory last year. Instead, Washington was a team that struggled with health, on-court performance, and off-court drama. They still made the postseason as the 8-seed, but so far, the Wizards have traveled to Canada and looked flat, dropping the first two games to the Toronto Raptors.
In a strange way, the effort we’ve seen out of Washington so far has cemented an already widespread feeling about the squad. It’s probably time for a change.
If anything, the 2016-17 Wizards likely overachieved, stretching to a 49-33 mark despite a point differential more indicative of a team with a mid-40’s win total. Still, Washington’s trio of John Wall, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter looked like a formidable core and, with the expectation of a jump from Kelly Oubre Jr. and the reality that the team’s bench almost had to improve from its previous struggles, optimism reigned at the outset of this season.
Fast-forward to April, however, and not a lot has gone right for Scott Brooks’ team. Just months after signing a $200 million-plus contract extension, Wall battled injuries to the tune of only 41 games played. Whispers that the team played better without him didn’t please the All-Star point guard and behind-the-scenes chatter lent itself to something of a splintering of personalities in the locker room. Through Beal took a step forward and Porter performed both efficiently and admirably, it took the downturn of teams like the Pistons and Hornets for the Wizards, fresh off a 43-win campaign, to even reach the playoffs.
There was optimism, though, as the playoffs opened, with the always-enigmatic Raptors awaiting in round one. Through two games, an upset does not appear likely, as Washington floundered defensively in both contests (including a ghastly 126.5 defensive rating in Game 2) and just looks like a team that, generally, is flat. Of course, the Wizards could climb back and make this a series. They have a great deal of talent, especially on the perimeter in the 1-2 punch of Wall and Beal, to lead the way.
But if this keeps up and the Wizards bow out in the first round, the team’s front office might have to confront a rather serious issue: While Washington likely needs to shift its roster construction in the future, it would take some serious work.
Because (almost) everyone would agree that Washington has underperformed compared to its collective talent level in recent seasons, the danger of “potential” looms. However, the Wizards are far too expensive to simply rest on their laurels and a quick look at the financial books for the future paints a potentially bleak picture.
Wall is a tremendous player when he is healthy, but the size of his contract extension is startling. The 27-year-old is now under contract through the 2022-2023 season (with the final year including a player option). Should he opt into that final year, Wall would be paid more than $46 million. Given his age (32 at the time), smart money is on that deal being an anchor that hurts Washington more than it helps as 2022-23 rolls around.
Beal (three years and more than $80 million remaining) and Porter (three years and more than $81 million remaining) shouldn’t be considered albatrosses by any means but, in the same breath, the reality of Washington’s salary cap purgatory begins to set in at a certain point. These three players make up Washington’s core, for better or worse. Unless a trade occurs involving one of those players, the Wizards would have to dig well into luxury tax pain to add anything tangible to a roster that isn’t currently built for an NBA title run.
Though Wall is still the team’s centerpiece, the notion of his contract being moved for value at this juncture is likely a pipe dream, leaving Beal and, to a lesser extent, Porter as the available pieces if the team decides to shuffle the deck chairs. It has to be noted that a team in Washington’s position likely wants no part of jettisoning a young member of its core but, in the same breath, owing more than $29 million to the center combination of Marcin Gortat and Ian Mahinmi for the 2018-2019 season does the front office no favors.
There is no clear path to Washington hitting any sort of reset button and, as a result, it is far easier to simply argue for change than it is to provide real insight into what needs to take place. With that on the table, the Wizards are a team that looks like it has hit a ceiling — they can win a series or two based on health and the quality of matchups, but it’s not a team that looks like it can win the Eastern Conference, let alone a championship.
Washington’s roster may look quite similar in six months when the 2018-2019 season opens and, if it does, most of the NBA world will be able to accurately project the team’s performance level. There is nothing inherently wrong with playoff-level consistency in a market that didn’t have it for many years but, for ownership and the front office, the reality of future monetary commitments is real and simply standing pat isn’t an option that appears enticing.
