Each week, Uproxx’s Awards Forecast offers an assessment of who/what will be nominated for Oscars come January, based on pundit chatter and pre-Oscar awards. (The pundit analysis is based on opinions put forward by leading Oscar trackers, including Kyle Buchanan of Vulture, the expert panel at Gold Derby, Indiewire‘s Peter Knegt, Awards Daily and Awards Circuit. Pre-Oscar awards consider recent nominations and/or winners announced by industry and critic organizations that annually recognize achievement in film.)
Spotlight may have come home win-less from the Golden Globes, but because the Globes don’t necessarily sync up with Oscar, most pundits still see the film as a lock for several nominations — including Best Director and Best Picture. It’s definitely a front-runner in the latter race. DiCaprio and Larson also have nods seemingly sewn-up, as do Rylance and Leigh, who remain on the predicted short lists of just about everyone playing the Oscar nominations guessing game.
As previously noted, the Golden Globes are not reliable predictors of what will happen re: the Oscars. Still, it certainly didn’t hurt The Revenant’s chances to emerge so victorious on Sunday (though ultimately DiCaprio’s win felt like the clearest moment of victory foreshadowing). Stallone also got a standing ovation from the audience, which may (or may not) suggest there’s industry support for him, as well, while Globes wins by Larson and Winslet reaffirmed what we already knew: That they’re well-positioned to land in their respective nominees’ circles. Adam McKay’s inclusion among the recently announced Directors’ Guild of America nominees was only a slight surprise — many pundits expected to see him there. But given the DGA’s history of syncing up with Oscar, it bolsters the theory that the guy who gave us Anchorman will get his first Academy Award nomination on Thursday.
All of these on-the-bubble potential nominees could easily get knocked in or out of the Oscar conversation in their respective categories come Thursday. Of these wildcards, Lawrence and Depp seem most likely to make the leap from the maybe to definitely nominated column. Aside from Larson’s work, Room seems to be struggling to gain traction, so it would be disappointing — but not shocking — to see it left out of best picture and supporting actor. The Screen Actors Guild nominations left out Fonda, making her a big question mark, and the DGA did the same to Haynes, who did fine work on Carol, but may not earn an Oscar nomination to show for it.
Check back tomorrow for a complete analysis of the Academy Award nominations.