Hello, friends. Week 1 of the college football season is here, and after the appetizer that was a pretty crazy pair of games on Week 0, the regular season begins in earnest this week.
There are games from Thursday through Monday, as college football takes center stage on the one weekend it doesn’t have to share with the NFL, and as such, there are plenty of opportunities to get on the board and sweat it out. We’re spraying the board this week with a two dozen plays from Thursday through Saturday, seeking out winners and a little bit of redemption after a sluggish start to the campaign in Week 0.
Last Week: 1-2
Overall: 1-2
As always, lines come courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook at time of writing (which is Thursday afternoon at 3 p.m. ET). Let’s get into some winners.
UCLA at Cincinnati UNDER 57 (Thursday, 7:00 p.m. ET)
This total continues to creep down as money comes in on the Under, but I still like it. Last year Cincinnati won at UCLA, 26-17, and I think we’ll see a score line in a similar range on Thursday night. Cincy has a very good defense and I think both teams will look to run the ball and let that clock melt.
FIU (+3) at Tulane (Thursday, 8:00 p.m. ET)
My other Thursday play takes us to New Orleans where I like the Golden Panthers as road dogs to get us to cover town against the Wave. James Morgan is a quality quarterback and I think this is, if anything, a toss up. Because of that I’m happy to catch some points with FIU.
Tulsa (+23.5) at Michigan State (Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET)
My first of five (!!) Friday night plays is the Golden Hurricanes to cover on the road in East Lansing. Michigan State in home openers against G5 teams hasn’t fared especially well against the spread in recent years, including a scare last year from Utah State, and I expect that to continue this year. Tulsa can get spunky against good teams (see the Texas game last year) and I just don’t trust this Michigan State offense, no matter what they say about opening things up, to cover a spread of more than three touchdowns.
UMass (+15.5) at Rutgers (Friday, 7:15 p.m. ET)
PRINCIPLE PLAY! Rutgers can’t be a two touchdown favorite against anyone without me having money on the other side. You might remember we had Texas State last year in this spot and lost, but I believe in the Minutemen to take us to cover town.
Utah State at Wake Forest (-4) and OVER 60 (Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET)
My next two plays come from Winston-Salem where Utah State — who scared Michigan State in the opener last year — take on the Demon Deacons. Jordan Love is a baller for the Aggies, don’t get me wrong, and I think Utah State scores points on the Deacs (hence the Over play), but I also don’t think their defense will be able to contain a Wake offense that’s very good in its own right. At home, I think the Deacs take care of business in a bit of a shootout, but pull away late.
Colorado State at Colorado UNDER 57 (Friday, 10:00 p.m. ET)
This is a rivalry game that, historically, comes in under the total. It’s not always super competitive and sometimes it gets close to the number, but these two have cashed the Under an awful lot over the last decade. Laviska Shenault rules, though. That just needs to be said.
FAU at Ohio State OVER 64.5 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Lane Train is rolling into Columbus and I fear the Owls are going to get absolutely smacked, but they should score some on the Buckeyes and as long as they do that we’ll get to the Over. Ohio State will have a little something to prove in the first game of the post-Urban Meyer era and FAU’s defense should allow them ample opportunity to do so. J.K. Dobbins might rush for 200 yards here and I think a 50-burger is in order for the Buckeyes.
Akron at Illinois (-18) and UNDER 61 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Illini aren’t good in terms of being a Big Ten program, but they’re significantly better than Akron and should be able to cruise to a big margin of victory over a bad MAC team. I don’t think Akron will score much here, which is why I also like the Under. How about 38-10 or something, one time.
Ball State at Indiana UNDER 60 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Like the Illinois/Akron game, I just like Big Ten/MAC matchup unders. Indiana isn’t very good and yet as big favorites I’m expecting them to keep the Ball State offense in check. Ball State’s defense is bad, which gives minor pause for concern, but neither of these offenses was very good last year and I’m expecting that to carry us to a winner.
Toledo at Kentucky UNDER 62 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Kentucky’s defense won’t be as good as last year when the allowed just under 17 points per game, but they’re still going to be pretty good and their offense isn’t exactly a juggernaut. When the team with more talent skews towards the defensive, I’m happy to hop on the Under.
Ole Miss at Memphis OVER 66 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Both of these teams can score in bunches and neither of these teams plays especially good defense. That’s a recipe for an Over.
Boise State at FSU UNDER 51 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
This game has been moved from Jacksonville to Tallahassee and I’d bet it’ll be a little bit of a sleepy atmosphere. I liked the Under in Jax and I like it as much if not more now that the game’s been moved.
Eastern Michigan at Coastal Carolina (+6) and UNDER 53 (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
You may be asking why I have two plays on this game and, look, I just go where the good lord tells me. Eastern Michigan on the road in non-conference tends to play in super close games, so getting six with the home team just feels like value. As for the Under, neither of these teams are exactly prolific on offense, so I’m happy to hop on that as well.
Northwestern (+6.5) at Stanford and UNDER 47.5 (Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Northwestern at Stanford is a principle Under play for me, simply because of what these two teams do. Northwestern as an underdog is also always a play I like, and when Stanford Steve says to take Stanford’s opponent, you just do it.
Virginia Tech at Boston College (+4.5) (Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Dudes getting points at home when A.J. Dillon is going to be the best player on the field? Yes, please.
Miami (OH) at Iowa UNDER 47 (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
See Akron/Illinois and Ball State/Indiana, but on top of my B1G/MAC Under love, Iowa had the 11th best scoring defense in the nation last year. I don’t see the Redhawks getting in the end zone much.
Georgia Southern (+27.5) at LSU and UNDER 52.5 (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
LSU has Texas next week in a massive game for both programs. That means they should look pretty vanilla on offense and a lot like past LSU teams, even if the hope is this year Joe Burrow can make them more dynamic. They’ll just be looking to get a win and not show too much here. Georgia Southern’s going to run that option and wind the clock and I think this could be like 27-7.
Virginia at Pitt (+2.5) (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
This game is tailor made for my personal interests. Should be a lot of physical play, runnin’ the dang ball, and guys being dudes. I like home underdogs and in a toss-up type game I’ll take the candy.
Auburn (-3.5) vs. Oregon (Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET)
The main event of a weak Week 1 Saturday is Auburn against Oregon. The SEC-Pac 12 matchups have been extremely lopsided on the side of the SEC, both in outcome and ATS, so I’ll take the Tigers and ride with that trend, knowing fully well that Oregon is a very talented team.
