Hello, friends. It’s Week 12 of the college football season, aka the worst Saturday on the schedule. It’s tuneup week for rivalry weekend, which means, somehow, the best game on the slate is Michigan-Wisconsin, followed by, um, Navy-Notre Dame. It’s not great. Also not great? Last week for our picks. We got heavy on Week 11, which turned out to be a mistake, and we’re back to being narrowly above .500.
Last Week: 5-8
Season Total: 48-47-1
Week 12 might not have great games, but maybe that’s the key here. We’re riding with our principles this week in hopes of bouncing back in this sleepy slate.
Rutgers (+11) at Indiana
Rutgers is 8-2 ATS this season and Indiana’s flat out not a good football team. This year, Rutgers has struggled against good teams but hung around with and even beaten a number of the Big Ten’s mediocre squads. I like the Scarlet Knights to keep this inside a single possession and cover.
Cincinnati at East Carolina (+5)
For the second time this year we’re going against the principle of “fade ECU” on the gut feeling of “the opponent is really not good.” It paid dividends when BYU came to Greenville and we’re hoping for the same when the ‘Cats roll into town.
UAB (+10.5) at Florida
My beautiful Blazers have been a covering machine this year, and I like them to stroll into Gainesville and give the Gators a scare. I don’t know if they’ll win this outright, but I do think Florida fans will be bringing out the boo birds in The Swamp when the Blazers are tied with Florida at the half.
Virginia at Miami (FL) UNDER 51
Miami and the Under is a principle play. This defense is nasty and I fear the Cavaliers might not get very far into double-digits in this one.
Louisiana-Monroe (+37.5) at Auburn
30-plus point underdogs are covering at a staggering 73 percent clip this season. ULM is a decent team and I don’t think Auburn cares much about style points here beyond getting a win and getting to the Iron Bowl healthy.
Navy (+18) at Notre Dame
This won’t be an especially fun game to sweat out because Navy’s defense is a disaster, but I do think this offense is humming right now and can keep pace with the Irish for most of this game. It might be a dicey 41-24 type cover, but I think we get winners from the Midshipmen.
UConn at Boston College UNDER 51.5
A couple of sneaky Under teams this season going up against each other in Chestnut Hill. This is the most on-brand game of the day and I’d be remiss if I weren’t on the Under.
Michigan (+7) at Wisconsin
I liked this line much better when it was above a touchdown, but this is what I get for posting picks this late. I think this is the game Wisconsin gets a little tight in. The Wolverines have looked better with Brandon Peters under center and this will be two nasty defenses colliding. 17-14 feels like the final in this one, so I’ll take Michigan knowing fully well it could get ugly.
Michigan at Wisconsin UNDER 42
Another extremely on brand Under. I got crushed by a ghastly turnover leading to a score in Iowa-Wisconsin last week to bust the Over, but I’m back on the Badgers and the Under here. I’m not giving out the coordinated parlay because that’s just gone poorly for me recently and I think this comes in Under no matter who wins (and honestly, Michigan getting blown out is probably because they score 7 or something).
