The final full weekend of the college football season is upon us, which means it’s rivalry weekend. I come into rivalry weekend fighting for bowl eligibility myself at .500 on the season in picks, but hopefully sticking to my principles will pay off in Week 13. First, a look back at last week and where I stand going into Saturday’s action.
Last Week: 4-5
Season Total: 52-52-1
Rivalry weekend got off to a crazy start with No. 2 Miami falling to Pitt on Friday, and there are some other teams ripe for upsets on Saturday as well. Home dogs in rivalry games are your friends, usually, so we’ve got a couple of those (plus plenty of Under plays) for our final big card of the season.
Iowa State (+2.5) at Kansas State
Not a home dog, but the Cyclones are 9-1-1 this season against the spread and Kansas State is 2-3 ATS as a favorite. Bill Snyder’s magic tends to be reserved for moments when his club is a home underdog, so I feel pretty good about taking the ‘Clones here.
Iowa State at Kansas State UNDER 50
With the exception of an Oklahoma State game, Iowa State’s been well Under in their last six games. The ‘Clones play solid defense and rely on the running game with Jacob Park out, and Kansas State will likely be happy to oblige their desire to keep this thing on the ground and relatively low scoring.
Georgia at Georgia Tech (+11)
The Bees got destroyed by Duke last week in a look-ahead spot, but I think they’ll be ready for the Dawgs here. Home dog in a rivalry game, Georgia having one eye on that SEC title game (and, by proxy, the Iron Bowl), Tech’s triple-option. All of those factors point me to this being a close game and to take the candy.
Notre Dame at Stanford UNDER 56.5
I was tempted to hand out the Cardinal (+3.5) as a home dog and wouldn’t begrudge you from doing so, but I really like this Under. Both of these teams are going to run the dang ball, and that means time figures to melt off of this clock, even if the offenses are having some success. Bryce Love, who is expected to play, is a home run threat, but if the Irish can keep him in front of them I think this comes comfortably Under this total.
BYU at Hawaii UNDER 49
I haven’t forgiven myself for not taking the UMass-BYU Under last week so I’m not missing my chance this week with the Cougars in Hawaii. There are going to be 22 mph crosswinds at Aloha Stadium, which will make passing almost impossible. Big wind usually means few points.
Indiana at Purdue UNDER 52.5
This total’s climbed from sub-48 at open and I think at this point it’s just too high. It’s going to be a windy day in West Lafayette, plus Purdue and the Under are a principle play this season.
Kansas (+41.5) at Oklahoma State
We talked about 30-point dogs last week, well they went 4-0 in Week 12 so you better believe I’m taking the Jayhawks (+41.5). This is an insane number for a conference game, fully understanding Kansas is horrible. If you wait til just before kickoff, this might get to a full 42.
Michigan State at Rutgers (+14.5)
Sparty is not good away from East Lansing, and while Rutgers has fallen off a bit in recent weeks, I think they can hold this to inside two touchdowns. You don’t just walk into High Point Solutions Stadium, the home of college football, and roll the ‘Gers.
Michigan State at Rutgers UNDER 42
We’ll stay in Piscataway for this Under play as well. These offenses are really not good. Also, I need one last really low total to sweat this season.
East Carolina at Memphis (-28)
It’s our last chance to fade ECU against a quality opponent and I wouldn’t miss this for the world. I think I’m 9-0 on ECU plays this season (including taking them twice). God bless the 2017 Pirates, I will never forget you.
