We’ve reached the quarter pole of the college football season, and that means it’s time for conference play to get into full swing around the country. Last week wasn’t great, but also wasn’t a disaster in the picks column as we continue to trudge along just below .500.
There were some bright spots (Troy getting it done on the field as a double-digit dog) and some outright whiffs (banking on a Florida State get right game against Syracuse), but we continue to trust our process and seek out some winners in Week 4. Favorites have gone poorly for us this year, including an 0-4 effort on favorites last week, so for the most part we’re going back to the basics and taking Unders and ‘dogs this week.
The big question for me this week is whether after back-to-back wins it’s time to trust in Kansas football, a sentence that hasn’t been uttered in nearly a decade. We’ll answer that and more shortly, but first, a look at where we stand three weeks into the season.
Last Week: 6-7
Full Season: 20-23
As always, lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of writing (1:00 a.m. ET on Friday). Let the winners flow.
Minnesota at Maryland UNDER 47 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Minnesota Unders are simply a principle play at this point. This defense has looked great to start the season, aside from a bit of a rocky opening half against New Mexico State, and is currently seventh in the nation allowing 9 points per game. This has almost nothing to do with Maryland, coming off a stinker against Temple in which they lost 35-14 to the Owls, and everything to do with the Gophers, who play really good defense and have an offense that works a lot of time off the clock.
Notre Dame at Wake Forest UNDER 60.5 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Like Minnesota, the Notre Dame Under has been a profitable venture this season. This is a defense that is real stingy and an offense that goes in fits and starts. Wake Forest has a damn good rush defense and a susceptible pass defense, but nothing about this season from Brandon Wimbush makes me too fearful of the Irish passing attack. I know the Boston College game got out of hand, but two of Wake’s touchdowns there were off BC special teams miscues, and I think Notre Dame will keep the Deacs in check.
Miami (OH) at Bowling Green UNDER 53.5 (Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET)
This is one to just put in your app and try not to check until well into the evening. Miami (OH) was part of a delightful Under performance last week against Minnesota and I think their defense will give Bowling Green some fits. The concern is the Falcons’ defense, but Miami’s offense has been real ugly so far this season, so I’m not expecting them to suddenly catch fire here.
UNC-Charlotte at UMass UNDER 58 (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
UMass is on my untouchable’s list for spreads right now as I’ve been burned too many times by the Minutemen’s ghastly play since the opener. However, since they ran it up on Duquesne, this is a team that’s scored no more than 24 points in a game against FBS competition. UNC-Charlotte’s played reasonably well this season, but they are averaging 23.7 points per game on the year. I know UMass is a bit of a disaster on defense, but I don’t think the 49ers will be able to really take advantage, and I foresee a game with both squads in the 20s.
Kansas (+7.5) at Baylor (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
It’s time to admit that the Jayhawks might be OK at football. I know they’ve only beaten Central Michigan and Rutgers, but they’ve done so in impressive fashion. Baylor, meanwhile, looked awful against a Duke team that was without its starting quarterback. I haven’t been impressed with Baylor this season and while I’m not ready to proclaim Kansas football as “back,” I am ready to ride with them as a 7.5-point conference road dog.
Vanderbilt (+2.5) vs. South Carolina (Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET)
My love for the ‘Dores is not a secret. I think this Vandy team is pretty good and nothing about last week’s close loss to Notre Dame is scaring me off of them here as a home dog against the Gamecocks. South Carolina’s coming off a forced bye from a hurricane canceled game with Marshall, so we don’t know a lot about them since their last game was getting waxed by Georgia. I think this is close and I’m not totally sure Vandy wins, but I do like the candy at home.
Texas (+3) vs. TCU and UNDER 47.5 (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET)
So many Unders in the 40s for your shorties this week. We turn to TCU-Texas where this total has plummeted since open, but I still like the Under. TCU’s defense is very good, despite ultimately giving up 40 to Ohio State last week. I expect a field position battle in Austin. If that’s the case, I’m going to take the ‘Horns here as well. I don’t put a ton of stock into their win last week over a USC team that might just be flat out bad, but, I do love riding with Tom Herman as an underdog where he’s 10-1 lifetime ATS as a head coach.
Louisiana Tech (+21) at LSU and UNDER 51 (Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The Bulldogs are a pretty decent football team, but certainly not on the level of LSU. That said, three touchdowns is a lot and LSU typically doesn’t do well in these situations. This feels like a bit of a letdown performance from the Tigers after a big, emotional win at Auburn last week. I wouldn’t be surprised by something real ugly, like 24-10 here. You know what, give me the Under too.
Troy (-4.5) at Louisiana-Monroe (Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The one favorite I’ll ride with this week is Troy, coming off that big win at Nebraska. I know everyone that’s taken the Warhawks here is banking on a letdown game, but this Troy defense is real nasty and ULM’s not exactly a real good football team. I get what people are sensing, but I think in this one Troy’s now undervalued with this being bet down to 4.5 and I’ll ride with the Trojans again.
Wisconsin at Iowa UNDER 43 (Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET)
The ultimate sweat this weekend will be Wisconsin-Iowa in some extremely B1G action in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes look like a proper Iowa team, grinding out long drives on the ground that often end in the kicking game being involved and playing stout defense. Wisconsin is coming off a stunning loss to BYU and something tells me that’ll have the defense fired up to prove that was a fluke. I like this to be an absolute rock fight in the teens, but every point is going to terrify you here. This isn’t for the faint of heart and we’ll be a broken play, defensive, or special teams score from disaster at all times.
