The NFL season is now officially in full swing, with two full weeks of results in the bag. As usual, there is some weirdness to sift through but, in terms of the success or failure in this space, things have been pretty good. Week 2 was highly profitable, even with the ineptitude of the Philadelphia Eagles, and Week 3 provides another opportunity to let it fly.
Before we dive into this week’s slate with five selections, here is a look at where we’ve been to this point.
- Week 2: 4-1
- 2020 Season: 7-3
Come get these winners.
Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) over Tennessee Titans
The Vikings look horrific. There is no arguing that. Minnesota is arguably the most disappointing team in the NFL through two weeks so, naturally, here we are on their side. I’m betting that the Vikings didn’t fall off entirely overnight and, truthfully, I’m probably a little lower on the Titans than the consensus. Give me the home underdog, especially with the entire universe on the other side.
New York Jets (+11.5) over Indianapolis Colts
I can hear you laughing. I get it. The Jets might be the worst team in the NFL and they are already a punchline this season. I won’t argue with any of that but, as a result of the pointing and laughing, New York is now undervalued. Should they be a substantial underdog against the Colts? Absolutely. Should it be 11.5? Absolutely not. Give me the candy.
Carolina Panthers (+6.5) over Los Angeles Chargers
Christian McCaffrey is an enormous loss for the Panthers and that probably plays into this line being where it is. I’m definitely skeptical of the Chargers as this big of a favorite with their quarterback situation, though, and the market might be overreacting to Carolina losing its best player. McCaffrey is great, but he’s still a running back and this line should be closer to four in my view. That’s enough to give me the value with the public on the other side.
Detroit Lions (+5.5) over Arizona Cardinals
Oh look, another underdog that absolutely no one wants! The Lions were getting some buzz before the season but, with haste, the bandwagon emptied and it was probably justified. Detroit utterly imploded in back-to-back games and, at the same time, the Cardinals opened with two wins and a lot of excitement. This line should probably be closer to a field goal at the moment, but these are the situations we are made for. Fade the public.
New Orleans Saints (-3) over Green Bay Packers
Our pals at Action Network tell me that more than 70 percent of the tickets are on the Packers. Green Bay looks great right now, so that isn’t too shocking, but the Saints are laying only a field goal at home? That seems odd. Candidly, I’m a bit of a Drew Brees skeptic at this point in his career, but New Orleans is loaded on defense and they can lean on Alvin Kamara to make some things happen. This is just me playing against a number and the public, though, with a little bit too much love for the Packers in the market right now.