The 17-week gauntlet of the NFL regular season is over and, well, we all survived. In this space, we experienced mild success and the season finale was relatively kind to us. Still, the task is never done and, as Wild Card weekend approaches in earnest, the focus is on finding value in the point spread (often by fading the public with vigor) within an intriguing four-game slate.
Before we get to the picks for this week — now in reduced form given the shortened slate — let’s take a glance at what the regular season had in store in terms of the results.
- Week 17: 3-2
- 2018 Season: 44-38-3
Come get these winners.
Dallas Cowboys (-2) over Seattle Seahawks
As you can gather, we’re skipping Colts/Texans, simply because both numbers feel right and there isn’t much value to be had. With that out of the way, there are a number of conflicting factors with Cowboys/Seahawks. Normally, I’m on the side of fading public teams and the Dallas Cowboys are the very definition of a public team. In this spot, though, only about half of the tickets are on Dallas and the Seahawks have the feel of a very trendy underdog. In terms of actual analysis, the Cowboys should be able to run the ball in this spot and, kind of quietly, Dallas has been tremendous on defense when dialed in this season. Moreover, the home-field advantage is big here, as Seattle simply isn’t the same team away from their own building, which brings us to the small home favorite to take us to the window.