If you’re a football fan, chances are you enjoy arguing about quarterbacks. Brady or Manning? Luck or Wilson? And of course, that old stand by Is Joe Flacco Elite? Many of these questions are difficult to answer, but let’s try tackling one question: which current starting QB has the most job security?
Now, there’s many ways of looking at this question. One approach might be “if this QB got injured, and the backup played lights out for a few games, would he still have his job when he came back?” We can also quantify this based the question of how likely this QB will be traded or cut the following offseason, as well as how likely it is that if this QB did leave his current team, how likely is it that he’d get to start somewhere else. Other things can factor into this, including the age of the current starter, as well as the competence of the person behind him on the depth.
Taking all of these into consideration, I’ve ranked every starting QB in the NFL based on how secure their job is at this exact moment. I argued with myself about the rankings, and you guys will probably argue with me even more. Now then, onto the fun!
1. Aaron Rodgers
An obvious choice to top the list. He’s widely considered the best QB in the game, he has a lot of years left, and his backup is Scott Tolzien, whose last name actually sounds like the name of a backup QB. Plus, when Rodgers went down in 2013, the team was dreadful without him. No QB is more firmly entrenched then Aaron Rodgers, and it’s not close.
2. Russell Wilson
He just signed a huge contract, he won a Super Bowl, and played in another. Oh, and his backup is Tarvaris Jackson, who, if you’re not a Seahawks fan, you probably didn’t know was still in the league.
3. Cam Newton
Cam has the Panthers at 13-0, and is in a tight MVP race with Carson Palmer and Tom Brady. His job would be extremely safe even if his backup wasn’t Derek Anderson.
Note: If the Panthers are 15-0, and Rivera starts Anderson to ensure Cam’s health for the playoffs, we have to stop calling him Riverboat Ron.
4. Ben Roethlisberger
With Big Ben injured this season, the Steelers turned to both Michael Vick and Landry Jones, with decidedly mixed results. With two Super Bowls behind him, and plenty of time left on the clock, Roethlisberger will be the Steelers QB for as long as he wants.
5. Tom Brady
Okay, this probably seems a little low for Tom Freaking Brady, but keep in mind, age does matter. While it seems hard to imagine New England moving on from Brady, he’s 38 and a decline in ability is coming, most likely sooner than later.
6. Andrew Luck
This one we’re actually seeing play out. The Colts are 2-5 with Luck, and 4-1 with 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck, and yet, the team would never think of starting anyone over a healthy Luck. He’s had too much success in the past, and is too important to their future.
7. Carson Palmer
Palmer is having his best season, and is a surprise MVP candidate. Last year, the Cardinals were 6-0 with Palmer, but flailed when he missed games due to injury. The team was particularly weak under Ryan Lindley, who is no longer with them. Drew Stanton has shown signs of competence, but Palmer has become the Cards unquestioned leader. The fact that he turns 36 next month is the only thing keeping him out of the top 5.
8. Joe Flacco
Flacco is injured for the first time in his career, and the team is struggling with Matt Schaub, who has been washed up for about three years now. Having a Super Bowl helps Flacco’s ranking a lot here, but the fact that the Ravens are going to miss the playoffs for the second time in three years, and that Flacco only seems to play well every year other year lately, puts just the slightest bit of doubt into the equation.
9. Drew Brees
There’s no way the Saints would ever start Verizon Spokesman Luke McCown over a healthy Brees, but his ranking has dropped slightly if only because the Saints might consider moving on from him this offseason; not so much because of any diminished skill on Brees’ part, but because his strong play hasn’t been enough to save this team from its horrific defense, and the team may considering going into a full-fledged rebuild. But, if Brees were on the market, he’d be snatched up immediately, so you can only drop him so far.
10. Tony Romo
Similar situation to Brees; He’s miles ahead of anyone on the roster right now, but the team could conceivably look to trade him in the offseason and start fresh. The fact that they’re still clinging to the possibility of him returning for a highly unlikely playoff run speaks volumes, though.
11. Andy Dalton
He’s having a career year, and the Bengals have made the playoffs every year since he became the starter as a rookie. So why not put him higher? Because his horrible playoff track record means fans still have doubts about him. If he comes through in the postseason, feel free to move him up about five spots. Although after breaking his hand on Sunday, it looks like he might not participate in the playoffs at all.
12. Eli Manning
He has two Super Bowls, but if the Giants miss the playoffs for a fourth straight year, they’d at least think about shaking things up, even if it’s not Eli’s fault. Chances are that the shakeup comes at the expense of head coach Tom Coughlin, though.
13. Ryan Tannehill
It’s all about the contract. With all the money the Dolphins gave Tannehill ($45 million guaranteed) they have no choice but to be ride-or-die for him for the time being. However, if he doesn’t take the Dolphins to the playoffs sometime soon, his grip on the job could loosen considerably.
14. Matt Ryan
His backup is Sean Renfree, who, if you’re not a Falcons fan, you probably haven’t heard of. So, he passes the “what if the backup lights it up” test, but after a hot start, the Falcons have fallen apart. They’re lost six in a row, including being embarrassed 38-0 by the Panthers on Sunday. So, barring a miracle, we’re looking at three straight playoff-free years for the Falcons. Would that make them consider moving on from Matty Ice? Probably not. But it would make everyone involved a bit more restless.
15. Jameis Winston, 16. Marcus Mariota
Okay, when you’re a top two pick in your rookie year, of course your job is secure, so that makes these two a little tricky to rank. Winston earns a slight edge because his team has a stronger record, but Mariota has played solid as well, and if they were on opposite teams, perhaps their records would swap, too. The future looks good for both of these guys, and they could be shooting up this list pretty soon.
17. Derek Carr, 18. Blake Bortles
These guys are pretty much in the same boat: second-year, putting up quality numbers on a losing team. So, each look promising, but neither has established himself as a franchise QB just yet. Honestly, these two are almost interchangeable, but Carr is a little safer because of the backup situation. Chad Henne is a little more competent than Matt McGloin.
19. Teddy Bridgewater
Teddy B. has the best win-loss record of any sophomore QB, so why rank him below Carr and Bortles? Well, that game-losing fumble in Week 13 didn’t help (although he played well most of the game, and Mike Zimmer probably should have just kicked the field goal), but his unimpressive nine touchdowns and lack of arm-strength tell the story. Bridgewater has been decent, but he feels like a weak spot on an otherwise strong team. If the Vikings get bounced in the first round, or worse, miss the playoffs entirely, people will start asking questions about Bridgewater as a long-term QB.
20. Kirk Cousins
Washington’s backup is Colt McCoy and there’s no way RG3 will ever play another snap for them, unless somehow Cousins and McCoy both get hurt. That makes Cousins job a little more secure, but his hold on the job seems tenuous, even with his competent play this season. The team is considering give him a long-term contract. Whether he gets that will likely depend on how he finishes the season.
21. Alex Smith
Smith was the hardest player to find a spot for, mostly because he’s perfectly competent, but you pretty much know exactly what you’re getting from him. The question is, how long Chiefs will believe that what Smith gives them is enough. He’s kept the team competitive, and he’s under contract until 2018, so in all likelihood, he’ll start next year. Still, a fan base can only embrace a game manger QB for so long before wondering if he can win you anything.
22. Matthew Stafford
When the Lions started 1-7, there were questions about Stafford’s job security, and while the team has looked better (they’d be 5-7 if not for that wild Hail Mary by Aaron Rodgers), there’s still the feeling that this version of the Lions can only go so far, and the team should start fresh. How the Lions finish this season will likely go a long way in determining whether they make that drastic choice.
23. Jay Cutler
Cutler passes the “what if the backup played well” test with flying colors because that already happened with Josh McCown in 2013, and not only did they stick with Cutler, they gave him a huge contract. That said, the future has to be a little uncertain here. If they don’t make it the playoffs, it’ll be the fifth straight playoff-free season. Is that all on Cutler? Of course not, but at some point, the Bears to think about ripping it up and starting again.
24. Philip Rivers
This might seem too low for someone with Rivers’ pedigree, but let’s consider a few things:
A. The Chargers are awful right now.
B. He just turned 34.
C. Even before this season, there were rumors about the Chargers trading Rivers for the No. 2 pick.
Taking all that into consideration, it wouldn’t be a huge shock if Rivers is in another jersey next season.
25. Tyrod Taylor
Hey look, the Bills might finally have a good quarterback! So why not rank him higher? Because he’s only started 11 games, and he’s been inconsistent at times, particularly in a crucial Monday night loss to the Patriots. With that said, he’s miles above EJ Manuel, who struggled in the two games where he filled in for Taylor. If Taylor takes the Bills to the playoffs, he’ll shoot way up this list, and even he doesn’t, he’ll still have a decent shot of becoming the Bills long-term solution.
26. Ryan Fitzpatrick
Geno Smith was supposed to start for the Jets this year, but an act of God (and by God, I mean IK Enemkpali) thrust Fitz in the starting role, where he has the Jets at 8-5, competing for a playoff spot. He’s played better than anyone would have expected for the job, but whether he’ll start for the Jets beyond this season is still highly uncertain.
27. Brian Hoyer
Hoyer’s numbers are better than you might think (18 TD’s, six INTs, 94.4 rating), but it’s hard to shake the feeling that he’ll never be more than a game manager-type. Plus, the Texans job has been highly volatile over the past few seasons. If Hoyer missed significant time, and T.J. Yates thrived in his wake, they’d probably turn the team over to him. He’s the guy for now, but if Houston misses the playoffs, they’ll probably shop for a new QB in the offseason.
28. Sam Bradford
I mean… he’s better than Mark Sanchez, right? I think? His solid performance in an upset over the Pats and Sunday’s victory against the Bills will win him support, but with Chip Kelly’s penchant for roster shakeups, it wouldn’t be a shock if Bradford isn’t the starting QB next season.
29. Nick Foles
It’s amazing what a fluke Foles’ stunning 2013 numbers (27 TDs and 2 INTs) turned out to be. Even if that was a statistical anomaly, he still looked like a competent starting QB. Foles has struggled with the Rams, and was already benched for Case Keenum once. The only reason he’s still the starter is because Keenum wasn’t any better. Look for the Rams to have a new QB next year. (Again.)
30. Brock Osweiler
He looked good in his first couple games as starter, but the Broncos offense hasn’t scored a touchdown in seven consecutive quarters, including all four quarters of Sunday’s loss to the Raiders. Denver may decide to turn things back over the Peyton Manning once he’s healthy, and who will be the starter for next season is anyone’s guess.
31. Blaine Gabbert
He’s looked surprisingly competent, but it’s hard to believe the Niners won’t be looking at signing a free-agent QB, making a trade, or perhaps drafting someone like Jared Goff or Connor Cook.
32. Whoever Is Starting For The Browns This Week
Oh, they went back to Johnny Football? And he actually played … well? Guess it’s his job for another week!
