Week 7 of the NFL season was a bit kinder than Week 6. Still, there were some potholes along the way, from Derek Carr’s ill-fated stretch at the goal line to the trials and tribulations of Mitch Trubisky. Ultimately, we pushed money around on a six-game slate but, if nothing else, it is easier to be optimistic after a respectable outing.
In looking ahead to Week 8, there seems to be some opportunity for handicapping success but, before we get to the slate (with some “fade the public” fun), let’s check in on the full season.
- Week 7: 3-3
- 2019 Season: 16-20
We’re going back to the well with more than five plays again this week. Come get these winners.
Washington (+16.5) over Minnesota Vikings
This is a lot of points. Washington is (still) bad but, for a game with a total in the low 40’s, it is borderline lunacy to have a spread this large. The short week favors the home team in Minnesota but, at the end of the day, there is no chance I’d ever lay almost 17 with Kirk Cousins, especially without Adam Thielen. Oh, and Washington is better with Case Keenum, even if they should probably look to the future from a real-life standpoint.
Philadelphia (+2) over Buffalo
This might be my last stand for the Eagles. They’ve been thoroughly unimpressive to this point in the campaign but, from a talent perspective, I still believe and this is a slight fade of the Bills. If Buffalo takes care of business here, I’ll take them more seriously but the sharp side is the (small) underdog in a desperation spot.
New York Jets (+6) over Jacksonville
I’m playing the number, not the team. The Jets looked horrendous on Monday night and there is no way around that. Still, there is a reason that New York is trending as the sharp side in this spot and it is a combination of a healthier roster and the line movement. Before Monday night, New York was a 4.5-point underdog and this slid to six. That’s not a small move and it’s an overreaction in my opinion. The Jags should be favored but I’m betting Sam Darnold isn’t actually the worst quarterback in the history of football.
Tampa Bay (+2.5) over Tennessee
Count me as a skeptic of the suddenly resurgent Titans this week. The Bucs have more talent, at least in my opinion, and they have the rest advantage. It’s a bit too trendy for my liking but, alas, here we are. Also, buying the cheap half-point to get to the +3 is probably in your best interest.
Arizona (+10.5) over New Orleans
I’m going to stand in front of the runaway train again. I totally understand the line move given the potential of Drew Brees returning but going all the way through 10 to 10.5 is too much for my blood. Arizona should be able to move the ball (a stark contrast from Chicago last week) and there is enough of a cushion to where we’re playing the number. Fade the public.
Cleveland (+13) over New England
The Browns, off a bye, are catching almost two touchdowns. I understand the Patriots are the best team in the NFL but Cleveland still has talent and this number is out of whack based on the New England tax. In doing some digging before this game, the true power rating isn’t that far off this number, but it’s enough to ensure that I’ll be on Cleveland. May God have mercy on my soul.
Miami (+14.5) over Pittsburgh
Mason Rudolph is (probably) better than Devlin Hodges but let’s just say that neither is Ben Roethlisberger. Also, Pittsburgh is 2-7 after the bye in the Mike Tomlin era. Beyond that, the Dolphins have covered two weeks in a row but the market hasn’t caught on just yet. If this was 13 or less, I’d probably stay away. At more than two touchdowns, it’s an auto-bet… even if I have no interest in actually watching this football game in a national TV window.
