2017-18 Record: 24-58 (13th in West)
Players Added: Luka Doncic (draft), DeAndre Jordan (free agency), Devin Harris (FA), Jalen Brunson (draft), Ray Spalding (draft), Ryan Broekhoff (FA)
Players Lost: Doug McDermott (FA), Nerlens Noel (FA), Yogi Ferrell (FA), Aaron Harrison (FA), Kyle Collinsworth (FA), Johnathan Motley (FA)
Projected Team MVP: Harrison Barnes
I’m not ready to crown Doncic the best player on this team, but it’s possible he’s that guy by the end of the year. For now, I think it’s Jordan and Barnes vying for that title, and if Barnes can put together a third-straight season like he’s had in Dallas for a solid, fringe contender, that will be impressive and he’ll earn team MVP honors. Doncic is certainly the future of the franchise — at least that’s the hope in Dallas — but rookies tend to struggle with consistency and while the flashes of greatness may be on display, I think there will be enough downs to go along with the ups for the Slovenian wunderkind that will keep him behind Barnes for now.
X-Factor: Luka Doncic and Dennis Smith Jr.
That said, Doncic, along with rising sophomore point guard Dennis Smith Jr., are the keys to whether this team takes a small step or a major step forward this season. The addition of Jordan was big and will certainly help their defense, but Jordan’s effectiveness on offense is almost entirely dictated by the ball-handlers around him. Smith, as most rookie point guards do, struggled last year, especially with consistency. This season, the Mavs need him to be a steadier hand at point guard, allowing the offense to get in a better rhythm on a nightly basis.
Doncic also will share a significant ball-handling role for the team, and so they will need him to avoid the rookie pitfalls that befell Smith Jr. last year. Most consider Doncic to be a polished prospect and coming from Real Madrid he has plenty of experience as a pro, but the ACB and EuroLeague aren’t the NBA, and even the most optimistic have to assume he’ll have to fight a bit of a learning curve early on. If he can conquer that quickly and make the necessary adjustments to his game, his playmaking ability can open up so many things for this Mavs team on the offensive end. If that happens, they’ll be dangerous.
Best Case Scenario: The absolute best case scenario for Dallas is somehow slipping into the eighth seed in the West, although that seems highly unlikely. The playoffs are the goal, but in the West, it’s hard to imagine them making that big of a leap. The real measure of success for the Mavs this season will be the play of Doncic and Smith, because that’s the young core of this team and if Smith takes a positive step forward and Doncic is the dynamic playmaker he was for Real Madrid, they’ll have quite the backcourt duo for the future.
Playing with Jordan should help Smith because of the pick-and-roll opportunities it presents (same for Doncic). If Dirk can still be Dirk and have a similarly efficient shooting season as he did last year, along with a healthy, full season from Barnes and Wesley Matthews and the top of this rotation will be competitive with playoff teams. Dwight Powell following up his strong year last season with another similar campaign would be huge as well, as he was arguably one of the Mavs’ brightest spots in an otherwise rough season.
If it all comes together, strong seasons from young players and steady efforts from the veterans, the Mavs can be, at the least, a team that will frustrate the rest of the West. I’m not sure the playoffs are realistic, but they can enter a big summer with a ton of cap space and look very attractive if all the pieces fall into place.
Worst Case Scenario: Doncic looks like a rookie and struggles with the adjustment to the NBA, Smith doesn’t show any signs of improvement, and the team fails to gel and looks as disjointed and inconsistent as a year ago. Barring injury issues, it’s hard to imagine this Mavs team possibly being worse than last year, if for nothing else the upgrade of adding Jordan at center, but if Doncic and Smith struggle, that will take the entire offense down with them and leave Dallas once again lurking near the bottom of the West.
It’s possible, with Memphis also launching back into win-now mode, that the Mavs once again find themselves 13th in the conference, getting passed by the Grizzlies but leaping the Kings themselves. A 29-win season might put them as the third-worst team in the West and maybe seventh or eighth in the lottery, likely not vying for the top prospects but also leaving plenty of questions about who actually belongs as foundational pieces of their core moving into this summer where they can create $53 million in cap space.
