The fight for the final playoff spot in the West has given us more drama than we ever could’ve dreamed of, with each of the four teams in contention this week hanging on by a thread. It all came down to a one-point victory on Thursday night to send the Blazers into a play-in series against the Grizzlies on Saturday (2:30 p.m. ET on ABC) for a chance to meet the Lakers in the first round next week.
With that series now set, the Blazers clearly have the upper hand, needing to win just a single game to secure the final spot, while the Grizzlies are tasked with beating Portland twice in a row to take back the No. 8 seed that has been slipping through their grasp ever since they arrived in Orlando. Should Memphis win game one, game two will happen on Sunday at 4:30 p.m. on ESPN.
Though Portland has to be considered the favorites, Memphis (even without Jaren Jackson Jr.) are a good, fearless side that will throw everything they have at Damian Lillard and co. There are several questions that will determine the outcome of this weekend’s play-in, and the answers, of course, are never as simple as they might seem.
Will The Blazers Bother To Play Defense?
Guarding the other team hasn’t been a major concern for the Blazers this season, and that trend continued in the Bubble. Before the season restarted, Portland had the No. 3 offense overall and the 27th-ranked defense, giving up 114 points per 100 possessions. Since the restart, they’ve had the best offense, but have given up 120 points per 100 possessions. In the eight seeding games, they’ve allowed opponents to shoot better than 43 percent from three and almost 50 percent from the field, overall.
They gave up 135 points to the Grizzlies in their previous meeting in the Bubble, the first tilt that both sides played in Orlando, yet still managed to get the overtime win. They’re banking on outscoring Memphis once again, but that will likely once again mean some serious offensive output up and down the roster. Still, they’ll have to find a way to slow down likely Rookie of the Year Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke, who’s averaging 24 points per game against Portland this season.
What Can We Expect From Damian Lillard This Weekend?
Lillard has scored 154 points since he missed those two free-throws against the Clippers last weekend. At one point during their must-win game against the Nets on Thursday night, he pulled up from midcourt with 17 seconds left on the shot clock and the Blazers trailing.
There’s no reason to think he’s going to slow down anytime soon, especially with his team’s playoff hopes on the line. In the Bubble, Dame has dominated in the clutch. He’s No. 1 in scoring and tied for first in three-pointers made in the last five minutes of games in Orlando that are within five points. The player he’s tied with? Carmelo Anthony. By now, we now exactly what to expect from Dame, and that’s bad news for Memphis.
Do The Grizzlies Have Enough Firepower?
Memphis is without their second-best player in Jackson after he suffered a meniscus tear that ended his season. But in their two games against the Blazers this season, rookie Brandon Clarke has averaged 24 points a night, his highest average against any opponent in the NBA. They’re desperately going to need his production in light of JJJ’s absence if they want any chance at all of upsetting the Blazers for the final spot.
They’ll also need contributions from Jonas Valanciunas, who logged a monster triple-double (26 points, 19 rebounds, 12 assists) in a must-win game on Thursday against the short-handed Bucks, and Dillon Brooks, who dropped 31 points in that contest as well.
Will The Grizzlies’ Lack of Experience Sink Their Hopes?
The Grizzlies are facing a battle-tested Portland team that is coming off a conference finals run last season and has found itself with a healthy roster at the exact right time. Memphis, though scrappy and supremely talented, simply can’t compare when it comes to NBA experience, particularly in the postseason.
Granted, the the circumstances in the bubble aren’t the same as a pressure-cooker playoff environment in front of a hostile crowd, but the Blazers still have the upper hand here. Memphis has to go 2-0 against a red-hot Blazers team with the likely bubble MVP, which would be a big ask for even the league’s top contenders.
