The 2021 NBA Draft Lottery takes place on Tuesday evening. One of the most important days on the NBA calendar, a whole bunch of ping pong balls will fly around and determine which team gets the top pick on July 22, with the prize of this year’s Draft being Oklahoma State standout Cade Cunningham.
This year’s Lottery marks the third year of the much-ballyhooed weighted odds that are designed — in the league’s eyes, at least — to prevent teams from going all-in on tanking. As a result, the Houston Rockets, Detroit Pistons, and Orlando Magic all are tied for the best chance of winning the Cunningham sweepstakes at 14 percent. There are also a handful of protections on picks, which go thusly:
- Oklahoma City has the right to swap picks — either its own or Miami’s — with the Houston Rockets if Houston’s pick falls to No. 5
- Minnesota’s pick is top-3 protected, and if it falls to No. 4 or lower, it goes to Golden State
- Chicago’s pick is top-4 protected, and if it falls below that, it goes to Orlando
Ahead of the festivities beginning on ESPN at 8:30 p.m. EST, we wanted to look at the 14 biggest questions we’re keeping an eye out for during the Lottery. These questions — and, more importantly, their answers — will define how things play out at the Draft next month.
Question No. 1: Who gets the No. 1 pick?
Houston Rockets: 14%
Detroit Pistons: 14%
Orlando Magic: 14%
Oklahoma City Thunder: 11.5%
Cleveland Cavaliers: 11.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves: 9%
Toronto Raptors: 7.5%
Chicago Bulls: 4.5%
Sacramento Kings: 4.5%
New Orleans Pelicans: 4.5%
Charlotte Hornets: 1.7%
San Antonio Spurs: 1.6%
Indiana Pacers: 1.2%
Golden State Warriors: 0.5%
Question No. 2: Who gets the No. 2 pick?
Rockets: 13.4%
Pistons: 13.4%
Magic: 13.4%
Thunder: 11.4%
Cavaliers: 11.4%
Timberwolves: 9.2%
Raptors: 8.1%
Bulls: 4.8%
Kings: 4.8%
Pelicans: 4.8%
Hornets: 1.9%
Spurs: 1.8%
Pacers: 1.3%
Warriors: 0.6%
Question No. 3: Who gets the No. 3 pick?
Rockets: 12.7%
Pistons: 12.7%
Magic: 12.7%
Thunder: 11.2%
Cavaliers: 11.2%
Timberwolves: 9.4%
Raptors: 8.1%
Bulls: 5.2%
Kings: 5.2%
Pelicans: 5.2%
Hornets: 2.1%
Spurs: 2.0%
Pacers: 1.5%
Warriors: 0.6%
Question No. 4: Who gets the No. 4 pick?
Rockets: 11.9%
Pistons: 11.9%
Magic: 11.9%
Thunder: 11.0%
Cavaliers: 11.0%
Timberwolves: 9.6%
Raptors: 8.5%
Bulls: 5.7%
Kings: 5.7%
Pelicans: 5.7%
Hornets: 2.4%
Spurs: 2.2%
Pacers: 1.7%
Warriors: 0.7%
Question No. 5: Who gets the No. 5 pick?
Rockets: 47.9%
Pistons: 27.8%
Magic: 14.8%
Thunder: 7.4%
Cavaliers: 2.0%
Question No. 6: Who gets the No. 6 pick?
Thunder: 27.1%
Magic: 26.0%
Pistons: 20.1%
Cavaliers: 18.2%
Timberwolves: 8.6%
Question No. 7: Who gets the No. 7 pick?
Timberwolves: 29.7%
Cavaliers: 25.5%
Raptors: 19.8%
Thunder: 18.0%
Magic: 7.1%
Question No. 8: Who gets the No. 8 pick?
Bulls: 34.5%
Raptors: 33.9%
Timberwolves: 20.6%
Cavaliers: 8.6%
Thunder: 2.4%
Question No. 9: Who gets the No. 9 pick?
Kings: 46.4%
Bulls: 36.2%
Raptors: 13.0%
Timberwolves: 3.4%
Cavaliers: 0.9%
Question No. 10: Who gets the No. 10 pick?
Pelicans: 60.6%
Kings: 29.4%
Bulls: 8.5%
Raptors: 1.4%
Timberwolves: 0.2%
Question No. 11: Who gets the No. 11 pick?
Hornets: 77.6%
Pelicans: 17.9%
Kings: 3.9%
Bulls: 0.5%
Raptors: <0.1%
Question No. 12: Who gets the No. 12 pick?
Spurs: 84.8%
Hornets: 13.9%
Pelicans: 1.2%
Kings: 0.1%
Bulls: <0.1%
Question No. 13: Who gets the No. 13 pick?
Pacers: 92.0%
Spurs: 7.5%
Hornets: 0.5%
Pelicans: <0.1%
Kings: <0.1%
Question No. 14: Who gets the No. 14 pick?
Warriors: 97.6%
Pacers: 2.3%
Spurs: 0.1%
Hornets: <0.1%
Pelicans: <0.1%
