It appears as though we are finally done with major transactions in the NBA this offseason, and as such, we can actually look ahead to the 2019-20 NBA season and project how teams will do.
Oddsmakers have begun to release their season win total futures to the public, starting with BetOnline. More recently, Caesars offered up their win totals for those that prefer to put money down in Las Vegas rather than offshore.
NBA Season wins now available … Must play 81 games for action pic.twitter.com/ziwVvAzFTs
— Jeff Davis (@The_Junkyard) July 25, 2019
Betting activity at BOL has moved some of those lines, but there are some significant discrepancies between a few of the lines posted there and at Caesars. As such, it is my duty to remind you that when possible, shop lines to find the best possible number and also to see where there may be and edge at a certain sportsbook. For example, the Atlanta Hawks have a 32.5 number at BOL but are all the way at 36 at Caesars. Whichever way you lean on the Hawks, you can find a more favorable number depending on where you go (we’ll get to my pick there in a second).
With that in mind, here are my favorite bets available right now for those of you with the itch to get down some NBA futures in late July. Each pick will come with a Caesars or BOL designation, depending on where the best number is.
Atlanta Hawks UNDER 36 Wins (Caesars)
The Hawks are a fun and exciting team that came on pretty strong to end the 2018-19 campaign, but this is still a squad that only won 29 games a year ago and lost three of their best best players. Dewayne Dedmon was quietly spectacular for the Hawks at both ends, and replacing his impact at the center position will be difficult with who is currently on the roster. Moving Taurean Prince was the right move long-term, but, for all his faults, he was an excellent spot-up shooter. Kent Bazemore was a steadying veteran presence on the wing, even if an overpaid one. They replaced those players with Evan Turner (who is going to play backup point guard), Allen Crabbe, rookies De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish, and Damian Jones, who will backup Alex Len.
That’s not exactly the type of thing that, even projecting growth from Trae Young, John Collins, and Kevin Huerter, would indicate this team is ready to win eight more games than a year ago to eclipse this number. Expect the Hawks to once again be fun and exciting but also look very young at times and have serious struggles defensively. The future is bright in Atlanta, but it’s going to take some time for that to produce a playoff contender. The Hawks are committed to the process and I think fans and apparently the oddsmakers at Caesars have jumped a bit ahead of schedule here. The 32.5 number at BOL feels close to right, but 36 is just too high.
Dallas Mavericks UNDER 41.5 Wins (BOL)
As their roster stands now, I just don’t see Dallas as a real playoff contender in the West. They will be better than a year ago, when they won 33 games, and I think the Doncic-Porzingis pairing, health-pending for Kristaps, can be spectacular. However, like the Hawks, I think we may be jumping the gun just a tad on the upward trajectory of this team, asking them to be nine games better than a year ago in a Western Conference that is going to be absolutely brutal.