The Phoenix Suns clinched what was one of the NBA’s most hotly-contested races this season on Sunday night, losing in emphatic fashion to the Warriors to fall to 20-61 on the season. That 61st loss proved to be the magic number to earn the top spot in the NBA Draft Lottery, giving Phoenix 25 percent odds of landing the top pick (and likely Deandre Ayton) in this July’s draft.
While the Suns have locked up the top spot, there’s still plenty being fought for behind them in the NBA’s great ping-pong ball race. The Grizzlies have all but wrapped up the No. 2 spot in the lottery at 22-58, but can’t officially claim that placement until Monday night thanks to a win over the Pistons on Sunday.
Below, we’ll look at where the rest of the lottery teams stand right now (with some help from Tankathon.com) and what their best case and worst case scenarios are for each team heading into the final three days of the regular season.
2. Memphis Grizzlies (22-58)
This one’s easy. All Memphis needs to do is lose one more game and they wrap up the second lottery spot and 19.9 percent odds of landing the top pick. With Minnesota and Oklahoma City remaining, one would think they would make that happen.
The worst case scenario for Memphis is they win their last two games and end up in a four-way tie for second with Dallas, Atlanta, and Orlando and lose the random ping-pong ball draw and end up in the fifth spot, with an 8.8 percent chance at No. 1.
T3. Dallas Mavericks (24-57)
The Mavs need to lose to Phoenix on Tuesday night and get some help to land the second spot in the form of Memphis winning two in a row — and then win the aforementioned random draw. To wrap up the third spot at worst, they need Atlanta to win its final game and Orlando to win one of its final two.
The worst case scenario is winning their final game, watching the Hawks and Magic lose out and sliding into the fifth spot (or a three-way tie and losing the draw).
T3. Atlanta Hawks (24-57)
The Hawks are already operating in their worst case scenario after winning back-to-back games, including a baffler against the Celtics on Sunday. While that was a disaster, the second spot in the lottery isn’t out of the question. They need the same scenarios as Dallas to land a shot at No. 2 and to lock up the third.
The worst case scenario is Atlanta rips off a three-game winning streak to close the season by inexplicably beating Philadelphia on Tuesday, while Dallas and Orlando lose out and they fall to fifth (or, again, a three-way tie and a draw).
5. Orlando Magic (24-56)
Orlando still can hold out the faintest bit of hope for the No. 2 spot, but really they are hoping to land in a random draw with the Hawks and/or Mavs for the third spot (or see both win somehow and just jump them into No. 3). With the Bucks and Wizards remaining, one would think that’s a goal they should accomplish, but with the Wizards you never know.
The worst case scenario is Orlando winning both games, the Kings losing their final two, and Orlando losing at draw and finding itself in sixth with 6.3 percent odds.
6. Sacramento Kings (26-54)
The Kings need to lose their last two against the Spurs and Rockets (seems easy enough) and see the Magic win their last two, win a draw and then take the fifth spot.
The worst case is an absolute disaster. Sacramento wins both of those games, sees Chicago or Brooklyn lose their last two to jump them, then find themselves in a tie with the winner of Bulls-Nets and the Knicks (who also need to lose their last two) and lose a draw to slide all the way to ninth. Also bad would be winning one of their games and losing a draw with the Bulls or Nets to slide to seventh.
T7. Chicago Bulls (27-53)
The Bulls face the Nets on Monday night in a huge matchup for the middle of the lottery. A loss there and a loss to Detroit to close the season and the sixth spot isn’t out of reach — and at worst they’d lock up the No. 7 spot.
However, winning against Brooklyn brings the ninth pick into play with the Knicks hot on their tail one game back.
T7. Cleveland Cavaliers via Brooklyn Nets (27-53)
The fate of the Kyrie Irving trade remains in the balance as the Nets face the Bulls and then the Celtics. Brooklyn’s playing hard and the Bulls are, well, not. Boston also is resting so losing both of these would be quite the accidental feat for the Nets. In any case, Cavs fans are rooting for that scenario hard to keep the sixth spot in play and, at worst, end up seventh.
9. New York Knicks (28-52)
New York needs help, but they’re guaranteed to see the Nets or Bulls win one game. They face the Cavs in back-to-back games to end the season, so losses seem to be the likely outcome. The sixth seed requires quite the implosion from the Kings and lots of help from the Bulls and Nets, but isn’t impossible if both win at least one game and the Kings win two.
The worst case is New York stays in ninth, so the floor isn’t that bad. Lose both to Cleveland and they’ll have a chance at the eighth spot in a draw at worst.
10. Philadelphia 76ers via L.A. Lakers (34-46)
The Sixers can’t get better than 10th, but they need two losses by the Lakers to close the season against the Rockets and Clippers or one win by the Hornets to guarantee No. 10. If L.A. wins one and Charlotte loses, it’s a draw for 10 and 11. If L.A. wins both, they find themselves in 11th no matter what.
11. Charlotte Hornets (35-46)
Charlotte needs to lose to the Pacers again on Tuesday and get one Lakers win to have a chance at No. 10. If not, it’s the 11th pick for Mitch Kupchak.
12. L.A. Clippers via Detroit (38-42)
This one’s locked in. Congrats Clippers.
13. L.A. Clippers (42-38)
The Clippers are also locked in here and mathematically eliminated from the postseason. Back-to-back picks for L.A. at the end of the lottery seems all but assured.
14. Whoever loses the West between Minnesota/Denver/OKC/San Antonio/New Orleans/Utah
There are a million scenarios here. Denver is most likely due to tiebreakers, but there’s a lot that can happen because the West is a mess. The Nuggets-Timberwolves season-ender may be the one that decides this spot and No. 8 out West.
