Wild Card weekend was very kind to underdog bettors in NFL circles and, by proxy, that means it was a near-spotless weekend in this space. The first result of the NFL Playoffs was brutal for anyone that laid points with the Dallas Cowboys but, in getting a decent number, we avoided disaster with a push and, from there, the floodgates opened to the tune of a 3-0 run on Sunday.
Not every weekend will be that profitable but, as usual, there is value to be found during a four-game slate during the Divisional Round and we’ll try to bring it to you here. Before we arrive at this week’s picks, however, let’s check in on the season-long progress.
- Wild Card: 3-0-1
- 2018 Season: 47-38-4
Come get these winners.
Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 57 points
The world is on the over in a game involving the two best offenses in the NFL (at least according to DVOA) and that isn’t exactly a shock. We like to zig when others zag, however, and that is part of the reason for this play. The other basis is that Indy has a top-10 defense (albeit quietly) and it is also possible that the Colts elect to run the ball regularly against a “challenged” Chiefs defense. We like when the clock keeps moving and we like when everyone else is on the over. That’s the combination here.
Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams UNDER 49.5 points
The Rams boast a high-flying offense and it isn’t fun to root against points when they are involved. However, Los Angeles hasn’t been quite as dominant down the stretch and this Dallas defense is legitimately stellar. The Rams don’t abandon the run under any circumstances, which should keep the clock moving, and the Cowboys always churn through precious seconds with their run-heavy attack. This isn’t my favorite bet of the bunch but getting the hook is nice and this feels right.