Did you know there are only eight more weeks of the 2022 NFL regular season? It seems like time is flying by but, with four teams on bye in Week 11, there are still 11 games to consume over a five-day period that begins on Thursday. In this space, we’ve found our footing to some degree with a stretch of 8-1-1 over the last two weeks, but nothing comes easy and we must grind through another slate.
Before we touch on this week’s selections, let’s take a broad look at the season-long progress.
- Week 10: 4-1
- 2022 Season: 26-23-1
Come get these winners.
Green Bay Packers (-3) over Tennessee Titans
Candidly, I grabbed this at 2.5 early in the week and that is obviously a better spot. I still like the Packers at 3, though, and we’re banking on repeat success after riding Green Bay in Week 10. The Packers seemed to find something by leaning heavily on the ground game and Christian Watson bring more dynamism on the outside. Tennessee’s defense is stout, but I’m generally a bit lower on the Titans and I tend to lean on home teams on short weeks.
Detroit Lions (+3) over New York Giants
Why in the world is this number three? Well, it stinks. Even with two wins in a row, Detroit is 3-6. New York is 7-2 and playing at home. That split would lend itself to a much larger spread but, as soon as this number floated to 3.5, it got gobbled up by sharp action. The Giants aren’t a bad football team, which is a win itself, but most do not believe in their 7-2 record being indicative of team quality. Put me in that camp as well, and the Lions are plucky on offense. Hold your nose.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) 0ver Indianapolis Colts
A road favorite? Yeah, it’s gross. This number opened above seven in some spots, and I wouldn’t lay that many points, but 6.5 is a good spot. It’s a mini-dip for Philadelphia after a loss on national TV, and there seems to be a belief that the Colts are “back” after the Jeff Saturday Experience led to a win in Week 10. Admittedly, Indianapolis is much better with Matt Ryan at the helm, and there was a lot more juice on offense, but I’ll take Philadelphia’s roster and, um, an established coaching staff to take care of business in a bounce-back spot.
Houston Texans (+3.5) over Washington Commanders
Yep, we’re taking the other side of the post-Monday reaction frenzy, too. Washington did look great against Philadelphia, managing the game beautifully and making enough plays to get a win. Now, with a bit of a shorter week, they are laying more than a field goal on the road. Houston is definitely bad, and I get why no one wants to take the Texans here. At 3.5, I just have to. Principles are principles.
Dallas Cowboys (-1) over Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are running incredibly hot at 8-1, including a slew of one-score victories. Maybe that continues here and we’ll be wrong, but Minnesota is No. 16 (!!) in the NFL in DVOA right now despite one loss, and I just think Dallas is better. Is it scary to take Dallas in a coin-flip game on the road? Maybe a little, but I trust the defense and this is a good price on the Cowboys.