Feast Week is here and Thanksgiving brings high-profile opportunities for the NFL. A trio of games are set for Turkey Day and, with no byes in Week 11, there is plenty left over for Sunday and Monday. After a nice run in Week 9 and Week 10, Week 11 was a bit less kind, but we avoided total disaster with a 2-3 mark and spirits are high.
Before revealing this week’s quintet of picks, let’s take stock.
- Week 11: 2-3
- 2022 Season: 28-26-1
Come get these winners.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) over New England Patriots
It would be fun to give something out during the standard Thanksgiving doubleheader in Detroit and Dallas, but nothing is screaming at us. Instead, we land on the nightcap and a perplexing line. Minnesota laying less than a field goal here is a harsh reaction to a blowout loss (shout-out to having Dallas last week) and likely some negative stigma on Kirk Cousins in primetime. Trust me, I do understand the cringe element of leaning on Cousins in this spot, but the Vikings should be 5 or 6-point favorites in this game. Lay the small number.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) over Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore’s offense isn’t exactly scaring anyone these days, myself included. I’m usually partial to the Ravens’ efficiency, but laying more than a field goal here against a Jaguars team coming off a bye seems wrong. I would pick Baltimore to win straight-up, but grabbing four is enough.
Houston Texans and Miami Dolphins OVER 46 points
I genuinely don’t enjoy giving out Overs in this space. Miami has scored 31 points or more in three straight games and, against a poor Houston defense, that streak should continue. We’ll need the Texans to help us a little, but fading Miami’s defense a bit something I’m comfortable with. Root for points.
New Orleans Saints (+9.5) over San Francisco 49ers
It won’t be fun, but this number is a touch high. San Francisco lit the world on fire on Monday evening in a thrashing of the Cardinals. The look-ahead number was 8 before last week, and I’d make it 7.5. There isn’t a huge gap in those prices, but I’ll “sell high” on San Francisco in a week in which I don’t show a ton of edges.
TEASER: Carolina Panthers (+8.5) over Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers (+8.5) over Indianapolis Colts
This isn’t the prettiest teaser in the world. In fact, it’s hideous, and I understand it. There is still value in these Wong teaser legs across two key numbers in each instance. Denver’s offense hasn’t been able to score enough to threaten the 8.5, even with very little trust in Carolina at home. Pittsburgh is the more appetizing leg with Mike Tomlin’s record in these spots and a trustworthy defense. Let’s get weird.