With no thanks at all to the Atlanta Falcons or the defense of the Cleveland Browns, Week 10 was a success in this space at 3-2 overall in NFL picks. It wasn’t fancy by any means, but through 10 weeks of NFL action, a 59 percent winning clip has emerged and there is no shame in that. Week 11 is a bit of a strange card overall but, as we do each week, let’s check in on the season-long progress before handing out some winners.
- Last Week: 3-2
- 2021 Season: 29-20-1
Come get these winners.
Atlanta Falcons (+7) over New England Patriots
This is really gross and I kinda can’t believe I’m doing it. Atlanta was hideous last week and New England won by a million. Both teams were involved in errant picks in this space. This line opened well short of seven, went to 7.5 (!) in some places, and now has settled in this range. I tend to trust home teams a bit more on Thursday evening and, while the Falcons are inconsistent to say the least, it would’ve been unfathomable to me to lay seven with the Pats in Atlanta just a few days ago. This is an overreaction and I feel obligated to take the candy.
Washington Football Team and Carolina Panthers UNDER 43 points
Washington’s defense stinks, but so does Carolina’s offense. The Panthers will be run-heavy, maybe even more so with Cam Newton, and I do trust Carolina’s defense in this spot. This feels like a legitimate slugfest and we’ll need some field goals and punts.
Indianapolis Colts and Buffalo Bills UNDER 50 points
Buffalo’s offense isn’t quite dominant right now, but I do have faith in their defense. On the other side, the Colts are more than happy to run the ball, and I’ve long thought Indianapolis was better than the perception on defense. This number is a tick high.
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) over Arizona Cardinals
This is the season for Seattle. They’ve been in a tailspin and, after a shutout loss to the Packers last week, the Seahawks return home to face a division rival. Arizona has been fantastic this season, but Kyler Murray won’t be 100 percent if he plays. Of course, we’re hoping beyond hope that Russell Wilson got the rust off last week and is able to cook, but we’re largely just playing the number and the spot here.
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) over Dallas Cowboys
It’s been two weeks of Jekyll and Hyde from the Cowboys. They were horrible against Denver (and we profited) and they dominated Atlanta (and we didn’t). Meanwhile, Kansas City showed flashes of life last week. The Chiefs are usually an ultra-public side but, in playing against a Dallas team coming off a dominant win, that isn’t really the case, and we’re getting some value here at Arrowhead. Lay the small number.