Thanksgiving was jam-packed with football but, in this space, it wasn’t particularly kind to us with winners. After a meltdown for the Cowboys, we did respond with a trio of Sunday victories, though, and if not for a Dan Bailey missed extra point on Monday, it might’ve been even better. Still, it was another winning performance in Week 13 and, for more than a month, the trajectory has been positive.
Before we get to the opportunities for value in Week 14, let’s see where the full season stands.
- Week 13: 3-2
- 2019 Season: 38-32-1
Come get these winners.
Washington Redskins (+13) over Green Bay Packers
It would’ve been better if we were able to jump on this earlier in the week but, at 13, there is still value on Washington. Nearly two-thirds of the tickets are on the Packers and, quite obviously, Green Bay is going to be the public side. Still, the Packers haven’t been the offensive juggernaut that you might think and Washington has shown (faint) signs of life. We’re playing the number more than the team, but Washington is the side.
San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) over New Orleans Saints
In good conscience, I can’t give out +3 but, on my own, I’d be buying the half-point if you can get San Francisco at anything -120 or better. With that said, I still like it at 2.5 and I firmly believe the Niners are the better team. The metrics would tell you that the number is a bit inflated (partly because there is some Jimmy G skepticism) and we’ll take that smidgen of value.
New England Patriots (-3) over Kansas City Chiefs
I’m not a big trends guy, but here’s one for you. Every single stat that you can find will tell you that Brady and Belichick are absolutely lights-out when coming off a loss. We’re usually on the other side in Patriots games since the public is almost always on New England but, this time around, Patrick Mahomes and company are attracting the majority of the attention. The Chiefs are fun and good, but the Pats match up very well against them with an elite passing defense. It’s rare to see a public underdog and even more rare that it’s against New England. Lay the small number.
Arizona Cardinals (+3) over Pittsburgh Steelers
The Cardinals aren’t very good and Pittsburgh is a public side. That leads us to a couple points of free value and, in the end, do you want to be laying points (on the road) with Duck Hodges? I know I don’t. Give me Kyler and the birds.
Los Angeles Rams (PK) over Seattle Seahawks
Everybody loves Seattle right now and it is easy to see why with a 10-2 record. They have an MVP candidate at quarterback and more than 70 percent of the tickets are on the Seahawks. Why, then, are the Rams suddenly down to PK in this spot? Well, the smart money is on the home team. Let’s go back to the well with the Rams after a strong effort last week.