2017-18 Record: 22-60 (14th in West)
Players Added: Kyle Anderson (free agency), Jevon Carter (draft), Omri Casspi (free agency), Jaren Jackson Jr. (draft), Shelvin Mack (free agency), Garrett Temple (trade with SAC)
Players Lost: Deyonta Davis (trade with SAC), Tyreke Evans (free agency), Dakari Johnson (trade with ORL), Omari Johnson (waivers), Jarell Martin (trade with ORL), Ben McLemore (trade with SAC)
Projected Team MVP: Mike Conley
When the Grizzlies were at the peak of their powers, the team’s centerpiece was Marc Gasol. Along the way, though, the former Defensive Player of the Year and three-time All-Star ceded that distinction to Mike Conley, if only due to the three-year age gap between the two cornerstones.
Now, Conley is the best player on the roster in Memphis but, in the same breath, the long-time standout point guard appeared in only 12 games last season. That was an aberration in that the former Ohio State star appeared in at least 50 games in every other NBA season of his career but, in short, there isn’t much behind Conley on this roster and the Grizzlies need both health and effectiveness at the point of attack.
When he’s healthy, Conley is a tremendous player. He enjoyed the best statistical season of his career in 2016-17, averaging 20.5 points and 6.3 assists per game while an impressive 60.4 percent true shooting. That might not be a realistic baseline at the age of 30 but, given the fall-off from Gasol, Conley is at the center of everything in Memphis and the “most valuable” distinction in this space makes that even brighter with his singular importance to the cause.
Team X-Factor: Kyle Anderson
The Grizzlies surprised many in the NBA world when they delivered a four-year contract worth more than $37 million to Kyle Anderson. With Anderson as a restricted free agent, the Spurs had the opportunity to match and they declined to do so, setting the stage for a long-term partnership between Memphis and the talented forward.
Anderson enjoyed the best season of his career in 2017-2018, averaging 7.9 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game in limited duty. He posted those numbers with efficiency (58 percent true shooting) but Anderson’s challenge in Memphis will be to expand his horizons with a (much) bigger role. Make no mistake, he isn’t going to blossom into a star in his new home but, considering the investment and the opportunity he will be given, Anderson can drive a lot of improvement for the Grizzlies if he continues to improve.
The Grizzlies do have some intriguing options on the wing, with Dillon Brooks and Wayne Selden on the younger side and the duo of Garrett Temple and Chandler Parsons still kicking around. Still, Anderson combines relative youth (25) with interesting upside and the Grizzlies clearly want him to be a central part of their program moving forward. That sounds like an X-factor in the purest sense.
Best Case Scenario:
This starts and ends with a full season of effective play from Conley. Without him (we’ll touch on that momentarily), there isn’t much hope for the team to play at the level that many expect.
With that out of the way, the best case merges growth from young players, headlined by Jaren Jackson Jr. and a bounce-back of sorts from Gasol. The veteran big man took a sizable step back in overall effectiveness last season and, while some of that could be linked to the mess around him, Memphis has the ability to at least compete on the fringes of playoff contention with high-end play from the studs, strong integration from Anderson and good work on the edges from the likes of JaMychal Green, Dillon Brooks, Garrett Temple and even Chandler Parsons.
Worst Case Scenario:
In short, we already saw it and it happened in 2017-18.
If Conley and/or Gasol (especially Conley) suffer long-time injuries, things can fly off the rails in a hurry. The supporting cast is probably deeper and better this time around but, simply put, this is a top-heavy team and it won’t sniff playoff contention without a full season of quality performance from the veteran standouts.
Since this is the worst case scenario, it also coincides with Memphis having to send a 2019 first round pick to Boston, meaning that the Grizzlies finishing in the 9th or 10th spot in the NBA Draft pecking order would be the full-on disaster zone. If you’re looking for a bright side, a repeat of the 22-win season (or something close) from 2017-18 would lead to the team adding another blue-chip prospect to go along with Jackson Jr. and, in some ways, that might even be better than a 40-win campaign.
