2017-18 Record: 21-61 (15th in West)
Players Added: Ryan Anderson (trade with HOU), Trevor Ariza (free agency), Darrell Arthur (trade with BKN), Deandre Ayton (draft), Mikal Bridges (draft), Richaun Holmes (trade with PHI), George King (draft), De’Anthony Melton (trade with HOU), Elie Okobo (draft)
Players Lost: Marquese Chriss (trade with HOU), Jared Dudley (trade with BKN), Brandon Knight (trade with HOU), Alex Len (free agency), Elfrid Payton (free agency), Tyler Ulis (waivers), Alan Williams (waivers)
Projected Team MVP: Devin Booker
As a result of hand surgery in September, it is possible that Devin Booker won’t be on the floor when the Suns begin the regular season. However, this is still an easy decision.
Booker is, far and away, the best player on the roster in Phoenix and the Suns are a rare of example of a team in the league’s bottom tier that has a clear-cut No. 1 option. Prior to the 2017-18 season, Booker struggled to please the analytical community in that his raw scoring numbers were impressive, but they came with pedestrian efficiency and high usage. Then, the former Kentucky guard enjoyed a full-fledged breakout last season, posting a 56.1 percent true shooting with 31 percent usage and, in short, performing at a star-level rate on the offensive end of the floor.
There are still questions about Booker’s ability to be the best player on a playoff team, especially due to his defensive limitations at this juncture. Still, the Suns have the benefit of a legitimately effective lead scorer entering his age-22 season and that isn’t a bad place to start when constructing the rest of a rebuilding project.
Team X-Factor: Deandre Ayton
While rookies aren’t usually great fits for “X-factor” status in their debut seasons, Ayton might be the exception. There are other players who could impact winning on a higher level than Ayton during the 2018-19 season but the Suns have something of a log-jam on the wing with players like Mikal Bridges, Trevor Ariza, T.J. Warren and Josh Jackson jockeying for minutes. Phoenix needs help alongside Booker in the backcourt but, barring a trade, there isn’t a player on the roster at the point guard position that inspires much confidence in the present.
That brings us to Ayton as a legitimate pivot point, as the No. 1 overall pick will be the team’s starting center from day one. Most rookies aren’t particularly effective immediately but Ayton does have the tools to put up impressive box scores. Whether he can positively contribute in other ways, namely on defense, is up for debate but the Suns will struggle if he doesn’t exceed rational expectations for what a rookie should be in 2018-19.
Best Case Scenario:
Because of how poorly things went for the Suns last season, it would be very aggressive to predict legitimate playoff contention this season. Phoenix operated as a team that was trying to be more competitive, especially with regard to the moves to add Ariza and Ryan Anderson, but there is a big jump between 21 wins and even fringe playoff contention, and they would need another sure-fire addition in the backcourt to dream big.
More realistically, the Suns will be looking for tangible improvement and, within reason, strong performance from members of the young core. As noted above, Booker is a safe bet at this point, but Ayton showing off the skill set that made him the top overall pick would go a long way, and one (or both) of the Jackson-Bridges combination impressing would be encouraging as well.
Phoenix can take the next step as a franchise without making the playoffs and it starts with individual growth that might turn into team success later in the campaign.
Worst Case Scenario:
According to Cleaning The Glass, the Suns were the worst team in the NBA last season on both ends of the floor. That is genuinely difficult to believe, but everything went wrong for the Suns aside from Booker’s improvement. It has to be said that the current version of the roster is improved from the 2017-18 edition but, if you squint hard, you can see a path back to the bottom of the league.
Booker’s presence is much needed and, if he struggles upon return (or misses more time than expected), that could spell doom for the offense. On the other end, the Suns are betting big on Ariza as a factor but, if he slips as he ages into his 30’s, there isn’t much in the way of defensive talent to pick up the slack. In fact, there is disaster potential defensively with an Anderson-Ayton frontcourt and there aren’t many teams in the league that could be as bad on the defensive end as the Suns in a worst case scenario.
It would be silly to project a return trip to the league’s worst record but it’s not out of the question with a few wrong turns.
