Realistically, successfully picking winners against the spread is very difficult. Handicappers that can win at 55 percent or better are uber-elite in the long run and, in short, a 60 percent clip is virtually impossible.
With that said, any week that features a 60 percent success rate is an enormous victory and Week 3 provided that in this space. Granted, things could have been better with a bit of cooperation from the ole backdoor but, at the very least, the right side won three times out of five and that continues to be the goal each week in the future.
Before we unveil the winners for Week 4, let’s glance back at our season-long progress.
- Week 3: 3-2
- 2018 Season: 10-5
Come get these winners.
Minnesota Vikings (+7) over Los Angeles Rams
The Vikings were absolutely terribly against the Bills. The Rams look like a juggernaut. Take the points.
Okay, it probably isn’t that simple but Minnesota is now undervalued after their most recent performance and getting the full touchdown is key here. The Rams might keep it rolling but I can’t imagine laying seven full points on a Thursday night against what I believe is one of the best teams in the NFL in the Vikings. This will be a “pros vs. joes” game and we’ll be with the pros.
Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) over Seattle Seahawks
Nothing is more on-brand than this pick. The Cardinals are 0-3 and, given what the Bills did last week, might be the worst team in the league. They’re catching only 3.5 against the Seahawks but this has the makings of a “kitchen sink” game for Arizona and, even if only slightly, I would have the Cardinals rated higher with Josh Rosen under center than Sam Bradford. This might look really stupid by Monday but the Cardinals are the side.
New York Giants (+3.5) over New Orleans Saints
The Saints “got right” with an overtime win over the Falcons last week but this is the second straight road game for New Orleans. More importantly, Drew Brees and company must leave the comforts of the dome to take on the Giants and that is a key factor here. Are the Saints a full touchdown better than the Giants on a neutral field? Maybe so, but this line could probably be less than a field goal in New Jersey. Throw in the fact that everyone will be on the small road favorite and here we are.
Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 25.5 points in the first half
This may not be your older brother’s Ravens-Steelers match-up but the makings are still there for a slug-fest. Pittsburgh is on a short week and, while it may be tempting to fade them, I don’t rate the Ravens highly enough to pull the trigger on the dog. As far as the full-game Under, it is probably the right side but the Steelers are (very) capable of putting together a late flurry in the second half and I often trend toward the first half as the more “true” outcome. It won’t be fun to root against Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and company in scoring points but Baltimore’s defense can play and we’ll need them.
Denver Broncos (+5) over Kansas City Chiefs
As soon as the Chiefs finished off a double-digit win over the Chargers, I knew I’d have the Broncos on Monday night. A lot of public handicappers will absolutely hate this pick and I’m expecting the (vast) majority of tickets to be on Kansas City laying less than a touchdown on the road. However, the Chiefs still have a poor defense and this line is at least 2 points too high as a result of the public barrage. I totally understand it but the value is on the Broncos and we’re going to take them.