The NBA season is a long way away if you count 75 days as a long time. Sure, we’ve got USA Basketball to sate ourselves for a little bit in Brazil, but only the GOP’s jingoistic choice for president would fully rejoice in the periodic blowouts as Team USA continues to bask in their hardwood mastery. That means only a few things are happening.
One, we’re spending an unnatural and borderline insane amount of time looking at NBA players’ Instagram accounts for any clue as to their offseason developments. Two, we even got Snapchat so we could follow along with the social media hijinks that have come close to defining this inexperienced Team USA squad. (Remember, only Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony have ever made us squirm by unhygienically putting a gold medal in their mouth at an Olympics Games.)
Three, there are the reports about what happened in free agency, and who said what to whom before signing. It’s tiresome and largely uninformative. Except, that’s summer! But don’t worry. We’re gonna get the ball up in the air early on next season with these predictions, which are highly improbable, but not impossible (we don’t think).
Yeah, we’re a little off our rocker, but hear us out. There’s a reason July is the biggest month in the NBA calendar for media honchoes. It’s because everyone has a chance to win a title in July. The sky’s the limit, and everyone’s squad has just hit the reset button. This yearly tabula rasa emboldens every NBA fan — they can dream, and they should! — so lets just put forward these prognostications as a way of imagining an NBA future that will have all of us even giddier than we were after last season’s early fireworks in June finally fizzled out.
Kevin Durant will win his second MVP
Please get over his decision, internet, so we can enjoy this. Kevin Durant will become the first player since Oscar Robertson — and the first to tally the mark in the contemporary game — to average a triple-double for an entire season. He’s the most dangerous shooter not named Dirk Nowitzki who stands taller than 6’11, and that belies his incredible all-court skill. He’s also a consummate professional and one of the most unselfish superstars the NBA has ever seen. And — not to belabor the point — he’ll be surrounded by the greatest shooting team in the history of the Association.
Add all that up, and even if KD is playing just 33-35 minutes a night, we still think he has a chance to do what LeBron never has: average a triple-double for an entire NBA season. And because of that all-around brilliance and a new-found energy on the defensive end he wasn’t ever able to contemplate as an overworked star in OKC, it means he’ll capture his second MVP award.
Let’s also go ahead and have Durantula record a quadruple double with 10 blocks in a Christmas Day game against LeBron and the Cavs, too, for good measure.
DeMarcus Cousins will finish second in MVP voting
The Kings will still miss the playoffs despite new coach Dave Joerger becoming so close with Boogie they end up getting an apartment together so they don’t have to commute as far to the arena when they’re only in town for one home game. But the Kings will again miss the playoffs even though they will be in contention into April, a first for a Cousins team during his pro career.
After helping to lead the USA to a gold in Rio over the next month, something will click in Cousins that hasn’t been there before. It’s not like he doesn’t have the talent, but his effort on the defensive end will seem even more exemplary, and he’ll turn into a second rim protector when teamed with Willie Cauley-Stein, who will be unleashed as a defensive force after toiling under George Karl in his rookie season.
Cousins will put up his usual All-NBA stats, but the difference will reside in his efficiency and his on-court demeanor. Joerger will be Boogie’s new Mike Malone and the Sactown faithful will finally head into their next offseason with some optimism and a happy superstar excited about the future. This might be the craziest thing we predict, but it might also be the thing we hope for the most. The people of Sacramento deserve at least a mini turnaround.
Ben Simmons, Dario Saric and Joel Embiid become the first trio in NBA history to share the Rookie of the Year
A tip of the hat to the estimable Brian Grubb for this bit of foreknowledge. Embiid hasn’t seen an NBA hardwood despite his stance as a third-year player; Saric has been overseas and we worry about the fanfare of his arrival; Ben Simmons was the No. 1 overall pick this year. Yet, it’s hard not to imagine it all finally fitting into place, like a particularly vexsome circular puzzle that Sam Hinkie had mapped out on a piece of paper before Jerry Colangelo stole that said piece of paper. The lineup might not block out the sun (they really need to find a trade partner for Jahlil Okafor), but they’ll be the most entertaining Sixers team since Doug Collins was yelling his hair bright blonde on the sidelines. Actually — and not to unfairly malign Allen Iverson and his era, but that’s only because Eric Snow was the starting PG for most of that time — this incoming Sixers team will be the most entertaining iteration since Charles Barkley was going coast-to-coast in a Philly uniform that fit.
That, and this Sixers team with Cerberus cleaning up the Rookie of the Year voting will squeeze into the playoffs in the bargain-bin East. You’re getting playoff tickets Philly fans, and you might just see the specter of Hinkie winking at you from a concession stand.
The Bulls will barely make the playoffs
While the Bulls will play in the postseason, Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade will carry on a season-long feud we only hear about 10 years from now in Rondo’s autobiography, ‘Connect Four’ And My Connection To ‘The Truth’ And ‘The Big Ticket’. Jimmy Butler will have a hard time adapting to the inclusion of D-Wade and the former Celtics All-Star, but only because Jimmy has made such strides as an offensive focal point, running the high screen at a pretty solid rate, and continuing to shoot adequately from deep despite the new-found pressure of being “The Man.”
Wade will alleviate some of that bother, but that doesn’t change the fact Fred Hoiberg’s offense is predicated on three-point shooting, and two of their top guards can’t shoot from beyond the arc. They’ll be quickly bounced from the playoffs, and ugly rumors will surround coverage of the team as the overblown Chicago media breathlessly reports the body language of Wade and Rondo after brief,on-court discussions with Jimmy.
This experiment of semi-relevance in Chicago is not going to end well, is what we’re saying, and we’ll all wish Wade had just stayed in Miami when the season is up. On a more positive note, maybe Wade will help tutor Jimmy and he’ll take another step as a player as Rajon regains some of his Boston form whipping the ball to score-first wings like Wade and Butler. We doubt it, though, but it’s too early for our usual default position as the Debbie Downer of the Web logging world.
LeBron James will win Defensive Player of the Year
By a near-unanimous vote — the only holdout will be a Bay-area writer who votes for Draymond Green — LeBron James will win his first Defensive Player of the Year award. With Durant signing in Golden State, LeBron suddenly has a new-found motivation, and he’ll realize he’ll have to do it on the defensive end if Cleveland’s going to have any chance repeating as champs.
That means a new-found commitment to defense, something that’s been noticeably absent from James during the two regular seasons he’s played in Cleveland since coming back from his four-year excursion to Miami. Teamed with Tristan Thompson and a svelte Kevin Love, James will start guarding opposing fours and stifling them on the block and elsewhere. He’ll be sporting those ’88 Michael Jordan assassin eyes, where everyone on offense is keeping their head on a swivel wondering from where LeBron might swoop in. His all-world defense will also move James up another rung on the all-time ladder, too.
James’ Game 7 block has already reached iconic status, and his defense in the 2016-17 season will not only add to his already overflowing award hardware, but it’ll add to legacy that’s been leaving everyone in his wake, except a rarefied few. The ever-growing belief that James could very well be approaching GOAT status will continue its surprising trajectory more than half a decade from his Boys & Girls Club announcement.
The Timberwolves will make the playoffs
Tom Thibodeau will start his own MJ-inspired ‘Breakfast Club’ with Karl-Anthony Towns and Kris Dunn; he will lose 50 pounds and start amateur boxing when he isn’t sleeping next to a Synergy-only computer. Zach LaVine will start to settle down as an off-guard and Tyus Jones will show enough blips of brilliance in a third-string role off the bench, they’ll be able to afford dangling him for wing help in February. Dunn and Ricky Rubio will turn into a backcourt terror tandem that jumpstarts Minny’s attack with a ton of forced turnovers and fast-break points — like the 2014-15 Bucks, except with perhaps the greatest center in the game today.
Speaking of Towns, he’ll continue to supplant Anthony Davis as the guy with the highest superstar ceiling in the league, and we’ll all wonder if he’ll turn into a longer Kevin Garnett with a prettier jumper. It’s very possible, he just needs the d*ckhead on defense gene that Garnett basically invented.
The ‘Wolves will get into the playoffs out West, narrowly inching past Sacramento in the final two weeks. Except, Thibs’ team won’t win a game in a first-round laugh-fest against the Warriors.
The Knicks will secure the 2-seed in the East
Derrick Rose will be the biggest Eastern Conference All-Star snub after Joakim Noah gets the last spot as an alternate. That sentence is all you really need to know about the Knicks in the 2015-16 season. Yes, Noah and Rose will be rolling when the season starts in New York, and based off that strong start, they’ll get a ton of All-Star consideration and Carmelo Anthony will look like he’s playing on the international level as the Knicks cruise to the best record in the Conference in November. But it won’t last.
This is an old group, and they’ll falter heading into January. The All-Star break will give them a slight reprieve to recover their early-season form, but they’ll only finish so high in the East because Toronto, Boston and Atlanta all falter out of the gate and they were so good in the opening two months.
Melo’s back will hold up and so will his knee and [insert old man injury]. He’ll finish in the top five for MVP voting as the Knicks clinch the No. 2 seed. Knicks twitter, which is to say every single sportswriter who lives within 30 miles of Manhattan island, will be apoplectic when the heavy-hitter national writers fail to list the Knicks as a possible title contender in late March and early April. And they’ll largely be right, too, but only for this coming season. Long term, this Knicks team is still doomed. Sorry fickle Phil Jackson acolytes, but this ain’t 1970.
Mike D’Antoni and James Harden will go through the entire 2016-17 season without saying a word to each other
After a disagreement about a heated checkers game during training camp is allowed to fester, with both Harden and D’Antoni taking the passive aggressive route to conflict resolution, it remains a sore subject between the two all season. That doesn’t matter. With the absence of Dwight Howard, the intensity in the locker room is ratcheted up a few dozen notches and Daryl Morey’s disappointing group in 2015-16 will rebound with a mini-resurgence of supremacy — especially in the dog days of late February and in the mid-March swing when everyone is just battling to grind through. James and company always do best when teams are winded and not disciplined on defense.
Harden will again lead the league in free-throw attempts and he’ll continue to be the primary catalyst for NBA writer meltdowns on Twitter. The Rockets will secure a 5-seed and D’Antoni and Harden will finally break bread together (technically hummus, but why quibble with the diction) before they tip off in the playoffs. They’re an unusually frisky first-round opponent and make some noise no one outside of Houston knew would come. The SSOL era in Houston is deemed a success and the 2017 summer beckons…
The 2017 Eastern Conference Finals will pit the Cavs vs. the Knicks
Rejoice Knicks fans! You’ll be making your first Conference Final since a Van Gundy brother patrolled the sidelines. Not only that, but an overconfident Cavs team will be upset at home in Game 2, and Carmelo Anthony will play his greatest game as a professional by scoring 55 points, grabbing 22 rebounds and dishing 12 dimes to force a Game 7 back in Cleveland.
Game 7 will be ugly. Cleveland will be tight because they never expected to be pushed like this in the Eastern Conference — they didn’t lose a game going into the Conference Finals — and the Knicks will be anxious because Melo has crashed back to earth after his transcendent Game 6 in New York. The game will come down to the wire with Anthony hitting one of his few jumpers that night to give the Knicks a one-point lead with 3.2 seconds left.
But after the ball is moved up following a timeout, James answers with a bulldozing runner in the lane that falls, plus the foul. The foul shot is missed on purpose and James advances to his seventh consecutive NBA Finals. Somewhere over the din of the wind on the unusually cold spring night in Cleveland, a Bill Russell cackle can be heard echoing through the snow-swept landscape.
The Warriors will win 75 games, but they will not win the title and they will loss to Oklahoma City twice
The Warriors will go 75-7, but two of those seven regular-season losses will come at the hands of Russell Westbrook and a terrifyingly effective Steven Adams. But while Steph Curry will again break the three-point record and finish fourth in MVP voting after averaging 22 points, 10 assists and three steals per game on a remarkable 60/50/90 shooting line in 30 minutes a night, the Warriors will falter in the playoffs.
Yes, Golden State will have four players making the All-Star team and the All-NBA team (Steph and KD make First Team, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson both make Second Team) and despite the fact that Steph and Klay again lead the team in scoring, they will still fall in the postseason.
Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge will stymie the Dubs in the Conference finals when the pair combines to average over 60 points per game over the course of the series on better than 60 percent shooting. Leading 3-2 after a stunning Game 5 win at Oracle Arena — which ends up being the final game played there — the Spurs withstand a furious Durant scoring onslaught to start Game 6 in San Antonio (41 first-half points) to beat the Warriors and advance to the Finals.
The Finals will feature a moment even more iconic than Willis Reed’s limp onto the floor before Game 7 in 1970
The Cavs and Spurs will play to a standstill through the series’ first five games, which Cleveland will lead 3-2. The Cavs will then have the Spurs on the ropes in Game 6, despite being on the road. Except, following a series of brain blunders, LeBron will miss a last-second layup and the Spurs survive for a Game 7 back in Ohio.
Before that game, Old Man River Walk, Tim Duncan, will come out of retirement to come through the tunnel from the visitor’s locker room to give the Spurs an emotional lift despite the cries of disbelief and horror from the fans at the Q.
After a back-and-forth game that will put this past season’s Game 7 to shame, Kawhi Leonard will hit the game-winner at the buzzer after LeBron falls on a sweaty spot not he floor trying to rise up and block him. Cavs conspiracy theories will rage, and “The Curse of the Sweat Spot” will become a new thing retold on reddit messages boards and internet forums for the next several decades as Cleveland fans again throw a pity party for themselves after so much relief less than a year previously.
The irony will be lost on most of us, but LeBron will spend the 2017 offseason hearing about how he’s over the hill and has never been clutch in the big moments.
