Joel Embiid is one of the most exciting young players in the NBA despite having only 31 regular season NBA games under his belt. The Joel Embiid story is equal parts depressing and impressive for that very reason. It feels like he’s done so much, it feels like he’s been playing excellent basketball for an extended period of time, but reality couldn’t be more different. Thirty-one games. That’s it. He’s still recovering from left knee surgery he had in March, but was finally cleared for 5-on-5 basketball activities in October.
Embiid’s injury concerns make his looming contract negotiations with the Philadelphia 76ers fairly complicated even though we all know where this is going. The 76ers have to keep Embiid. The 76ers will keep Embiid, but they’re going to be pretty uncomfortable with whatever that contract ends up looking like. It doesn’t sound like this is going to make it to restricted free agency, but you’ve got to believe a few desperate teams would toss Embiid a max contract offer despite the injury risk. The 76ers are better off negotiating now to try and avoid having to match a contract they really don’t want.
From Embiid’s perspective, he could certainly play the season out, pray his knees hold up, and see what kind of absurd offers present themselves, but the potential money lost if he suffers another catastrophic knee injury means a lot more to Embiid than it does to the 76ers. This is his big contract, and potentially, his only big contract. Playing out the season without a contract extension is a risk I can’t imagine is worth taking. He has too much riding on this.
The good news for both the 76ers and Embiid is that contract negotiations are ongoing, and a new deal could be finalized as early as this week. According to NBA.COM’s David Aldridge.
The sides are “optimistic,” per one source, that a deal will get done by next week. But there are a lot of moving parts here — chief among them Embiid’s ability to stay healthy. He’s been cleared for 5 on 5 work in practice after left knee surgery in March shut him down last season. But Embiid’s history of injuries makes gauging his future murky. Last year’s biggest big man extensions for 2013 first-rounders — four years and $102 million for Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert; four and $100 for Oklahoma City Thunder center Steven Adams — aren’t great frames of reference for Embiid. As well, Gobert and Adams have been pretty durable the last few years. But Embiid’s too important to Philly’s future and a deal with lower guarantees and future incentives based on playing time will likely be the way this gets resolved.
As an avid NBA connoisseur, I’m certainly rooting for both Embiid’s health, and the 76ers’ success. We all deserve to see how The Process plays out. Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz, and Dario Saric is a promising young trio, but Joel Embiid is the straw that stirs the Shirley Temple. He’s as big a part of The Process as Sam Hinkie was, and if we’re going to get a happy ending to the 76ers’ story, Embiid has to be there.
