From a narrative standpoint, all signs point to the Golden State Warriors beating the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday night to close out the NBA Finals in five games and win their second consecutive title. They’re mad about Draymond Green’s suspension, which they feel is unjust. They’re in front of their home crowd, which feels a hundred times as slighted as the team does, and will be sure to let LeBron James know about it. The stage is set for the biggest act of defiance yet from a group that has quickly gone from beloved to somewhat villainous.
But all of this ignores one thing: Home or not, the Warriors still have to win a game without Green, against a really good Cavs team. And that’s going to be really difficult.
Aside from Stephen Curry, whose threat to make a shot from anywhere fundamentally changes the way teams defend the Warriors even when he isn’t shooting well, nobody has been more important to Golden State’s success than Green. He’s the linchpin of their vaunted “Death Lineup,” and the simple act of sliding him from power forward to center in place of traditional big men like Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli makes them impossible to guard.
The numbers in this series are pretty staggering when it comes to Green’s impact. According to NBA.com, the Warriors’ net efficiency (the difference in points scored versus allowed per 100 possessions) is +13.6 when he’s on the floor and -9.6 when he’s on the bench, a 22-point swing.
Nine different Warriors lineups that have played at least five minutes together in the series have a positive net rating, and all but one of them features Green. Only 12 Warriors lineups have played at least five minutes together in the Finals, period, and 10 of them feature Green. The two that don’t are garbage-time lineups that involve Marreese Speights, Ian Clark and Brandon Rush.
He’s crucial to the Warriors’ vaunted ball movement — they assist on 68.3 percent of all made baskets when he plays and 51.7 percent when he sits.
In losing Green, the Warriors are losing a player who can defend all five positions and help ease the burden of guarding LeBron James, much of which has fallen on Andre Iguodala for the second consecutive year. The Cavs are already salivating at the possibilities that open up for them offensively with Green out of the picture.
J.R. Smith on Draymond Green: "He's a pretty good defender, so driving lanes should be open when we do drive the ball."
— Diamond Leung (@diamond83) June 13, 2016
The Warriors were without Stephen Curry for about two weeks in the playoffs, and they were able to survive because they have other shooters, even if none of them are as good as him. They have no one else who approximates the level of versatility and effectiveness Green gives them. As good a defender as Iguodala is, he’s played just 32.4 minutes per game in the Finals coming off the bench. He’ll have to play a lot more, and do a lot more, with Green out. Not having the option of using Green limits so many things Steve Kerr can do with the Warriors’ rotations.
Golden State’s players are ready to prove the doubters wrong, something they made clear after the news broke Sunday:
"We're going to win for him," Klay Thompson said about Draymond Green.
— Marc J. Spears (@MarcJSpears) June 12, 2016
And the feeling of being slighted could very well be part of what ultimately leads to a victory, and a second consecutive title. But that emotional impact can only paper over so much of what Draymond Green the basketball player brings on the court.
Up 3-1, it’s still all but certain the Warriors will ultimately win this. But don’t assume they’ll do it on Monday. Not without a player as important as Green.
