Not everyone can be LeBron James. That’s okay, especially in the playoffs when just as many big games are determined not by the last shot, but by the defensive rebound or the charge or the swing pass or the block that set up that last shot. The club of playoff x-factors is long and memorable, and we’ll see some more names be inducted this year.
Here are the 10 x-factors to look out for in the NBA Playoffs this spring.
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10. STEPHEN JACKSON
The Spurs are sitting pretty at the top of the Western Conference and the NBA. Behind their Big Four of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and Gregg Popovich, the Spurs excelling.
But the Spurs have rarely been healthy all year, (Boris Diaw: lower back strain, Jackson: sprained right ankle, Neal: left calf, Tim Duncan: sore left knee, Kawhi Leonard: left knee contusion, Manu Ginobili: strained left hamstring). Now with the potential MVP (Tony Parker) sidelined for at least a month, San Antonio needs others to step up.
The same could be said come playoff time. The Spurs hope to field a healthy roster, but health alone won’t bring them their fifth NBA championship. We know what to expect from Duncan, Ginobili and Parker each game, however, for the Spurs to get their hands on another Larry O’Brien trophy, they need another player to step up.
The best candidate is Stephen Jackson. On the season, he’s taking three triples a night and hitting barely 26 percent of them while for his career, Jackson makes 33 percent of his threes. Captain Jack is one of the biggest enigmas in the entire league. So far, Jackson is posting a career-low in usage at 18.29, but he is a veteran that was part of some great playoff runs in the past (’03 Spurs, ’07 Warriors). Jackson is a knockdown shooter, above average defender when locked in — don’t forget he gave Kevin Durant hell for a couple games last May in the WCF.
In order for San Antonio to still be playing come late June, it will need to get all that it can out of Stephen Jackson.
9. CHAUNCEY BILLUPS
In Los Angeles, the Clippers have risen to become the top team in all of Hollywood and that’s thanks mostly to a rapid change in culture.
Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are the leaders of that change on the court, but off the court Chauncey Billups is bringing experience and leadership the Clippers have never had before. Injuries kept Mr. Big Shot off the court for most of his tenure in L.A. but he’s back now helping out.
A backcourt of CP3 and Billups is one of the better ones in the league, and for the Clippers to keep their success going in the postseason they need the Mr. Big Shot of old to show up. He adds another shooter to the starting lineup to help space the floor, and is a knock down free throw shooter for end-of-game situations (Billups posts a true shooting percentage of 56, which despite his rep, is actually only four points higher than the league average).
There are only 20 games left in the season for Lob City, and cohesion is the key word. Their projected starting lineup of Paul, Billups, Caron Butler, Griffin and DeAndre Jordan have only played 176 minutes together this season. Yet with Billups in the lineup the Clippers are 25-12 in two seasons, and if they can keep this success going they will be around for a while in the postseason.
8. SHANE BATTIER
The Miami Heat are playing the best basketball in the NBA and with a 16-game winning streak as proof.
Everyone knows the Heat’s success starts with their Big Three of Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James. While James and Wade have enough talent alone to handle most of the Eastern Conference they must have help when it comes to the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks; for the year, Miami is 1-4 against those two teams.
Miami’s biggest weakness is dealing with size, mostly due to the fact that Chris Bosh is the only starter taller than 6-9. However, placing forward Shane Battier on the floor creates a mismatch in the Heat’s favor.
In last year’s NBA Finals, Battier’s ability to knock down threes consistently provided a big boost offensively. This season, nothing has changed. Battier only shoots 40 percent or better from three spots on the court: both corners (51 and 47 percent respectively), and the left wing (40 percent).
If the Heat wants to repeat as champions, they need Battier to be in top shape — not just on offense but on defense too. Battier is known as one of the best defenders in the league and he gives Miami three capable perimeter defenders along with Wade and James.
In the end the Heat will go as far as King James carries them, but those driving lanes won’t open up unless the role players are making triples.
7. C.J. WATSON
Joe Johnson and Gerald Wallace were the big offseason acquisitions for the Brooklyn Nets (trading for one, re-signing the other), yet the most important free agent signing was backup point guard C.J. Watson.
The Nets were able to lure him away from the Chicago Bulls and it’s paying major dividends so far. Watson has worked perfectly as the backup to Deron Williams as an instant scoring threat off the bench. Yet at times, he’s even been able to step up in place for D-Will and Iso Joe, posting averages of 12 points and 3.7 assists in the six games he served as a starter. Watson has had previous playoff experience and was a critical component of the Bulls’ “Bench Mob.” He can run an offense and set up others, or he can play the wing and act as a scorer.
There is no better barometer of the Nets success this year than Watson’s play. In their 32 wins, Watson has a net plus/minus of plus-136, but in their 26 losses, that number does a complete 180-degree turn to minus-141.
With Brook Lopez having an All-Star season and the turnaround in the play from Johnson and Williams, the Nets have the star power to contend with just about any team in the East. Add in stellar play from Watson and they are in the conversation for one of the best teams in the NBA.
6. CHANDLER PARSONS
The Houston Rockets are hanging on to the seventh spot in the Western Conference. But with the Los Angeles Lakers starting to play like the team everyone expected them to be, they are getting closer and closer to the final playoff spot.
Houston first made headlines this season back in late October when they swung a deal to get James Harden from the Oklahoma City Thunder. Harden hasn’t disappointed, averaging 26.3 points, 5.8 assists and 4.8 rebounds a game, and was the lone Rocket to represent the team at the All-Star Game in Houston this season. However, it’s a player they drafted two seasons ago that will determine if they make noise in the playoffs.
Chandler Parsons is possibly the most underpaid player in the NBA, and for what he has given the Rockets it’s a travesty that his salary isn’t in the millions (that’ll soon be rectified). Parsons showed just how good he could be when he rained down five threes on the Dallas Mavericks on his way to a 32-point performance last weekend.
Harden will get much of the attention and focus from opposing teams, but Harden has proven to be the rare superstar that is also a willing passer. So if teams try to load up against the bearded one, look for Parsons to become the beneficiary of more open looks.
5. JIMMY BUTLER
The Chicago Bulls have been one of the most surprising teams in the NBA this year. With the face of the franchise, Derrick Rose, sidelined, many people expected the Bulls to take a step back. While they have dropped from the second seed that they had in last year’s postseason, they’re still currently holding on to the fifth spot this year. Without Rose, this is an accomplishment. If Chicago did nothing else this year and D-Rose never returned to the court, they could easily hang their hat on that alone.
But that’s not the way Tom Thibodeau coaches and that’s not the way the rest of Chicago’s roster is wired to play. Joakim Noah, Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich will give you everything they have each time they step onto the court.
Jimmy Butler is another player you can add to that list. At 6-8, Butler has the size to guard forwards and the lateral quickness and foot speed to cover guards as well. His versatility is perfect for Chicago and his defensive abilities make him a favorite of Thibodeau.
How confident are they in the Marquette product? On the season there have only been two games that Butler hasn’t played in the fourth quarter. And out of 60 games this year, Butler has played in 54 where the final margin was between one and five points. At the end of close games, the Bulls have utilized Butler and it’s paying dividends.
4. ANDREW BOGUT
Right behind the Bulls as the surprise team of the season are the Golden State Warriors. Mark Jackson and Stephen Curry have brought the Bay Area back to prominence this year — the Warriors haven’t been in the postseason since the “We Believe” run that featured Baron Davis, Monta Ellis and Captain Jack.
While this team doesn’t have the same athleticism and attitude that the former team did, it fields a much more complete roster. Curry and Klay Thompson are two of the best shooters in the entire league. David Lee and Carl Landry can affect the game in the paint and on the glass. Jarrett Jack has quietly snuck into the Sixth Man of the Year discussion.
But the one person that pulls this all together is center Andrew Bogut. The Australian big man brings a defensive presence in the middle that the Warriors haven’t had in years.
While 6.5 points and 6.7 rebounds per game won’t instill instant fear in any opponent, it’s the potential Bogut possesses that is scary. With a healthy Bogut on the court, Golden State could get hot and make an unpredictable run through the Western Conference. Bogut still isn’t back to the player he was early on in his career during his time with the Milwaukee Bucks. If he ever gets back to that player, the sky is the limit for the Warriors.
In the seven wins that Bogut has been a part of, his paint defense has been key, totaling 16 blocks in the victories. However, in the six losses where Bogut has been on the court he has only tallied four rejections. Golden State doesn’t need 20 and 10 from Bogut — they may not even need 10 and 10 — but if he can alter shots in the middle of the court the Warriors are a much better team.
3. DANNY GRANGER
Despite the embarrassing loss last night to Boston, the Indiana Pacers are firmly the second-best team in the East. Paul George‘s emergence as a true star came mostly out of necessity because former All-Star forward Danny Granger missed more than half of the season due to a left knee injury. Granger and George proved last season that they can be effective on the court together, and with George’s growth as a player, now that Granger is back, the Pacers can definitely make some noise when the postseason rolls around. If he can round his game into shape, and shake off the cobwebs of rust, Granger’s ability to score in a multitude of ways allows him to be a go-to player when Indiana is in dire need of a bucket.
While the early returns haven’t been great (Granger is shooting a miserable 28.6 percent from the field and scored just 27 points in five games… and now it appears he’ll miss another week because of soreness) these numbers don’t represent the “real” Granger. Prior to this year, his worst field goal percentage was 41.6, and his lowest point total for a year was 1,142.
The Pacers gave the Heat a good run in the Eastern Conference Semis last year, even taking a 2-1 lead by just being more physical. If Granger can improve from the 12.9 PER he had last postseason, they might just be able to get over the hump in Miami.
2. ANDRE MILLER
The Denver Nuggets are one of the hottest teams in the league, currently riding a six-game winning streak (which featured a defeat of the Thunder thanks to a Ty Lawson jumper and a Bernie dance to follow).
The Nuggets are also one of the best home teams in the NBA. Their 26-3 record at home is second only to Miami (27-3).
One of Denver’s biggest assets is that they field a roster that could easily be mistaken for a track team. Lawson, Andre Iguodala, Corey Brewer and Kenneth Faried are some of the fastest players in the league end-to-end. They have the league’s second-fastest pace at 95, and hold the fifth best offensive rating with 110 points per 100 possessions.
Those athletes have made the Nuggets the top team in points in the paint in the league while shooting a remarkable 58 percent around the rim. But, it’s the player that plays at the slowest pace that is their key to success: Andre Miller. For the year, Miller is shooting the exact same percentage in the paint.
Andre Miller has been in the league for 13 years and is still able to have a profound effect. He doesn’t try to be what he’s not and his passing skills and the way he finishes in the paint are exceptional. The Utah product is still playing at a top-notch level and if he can keep it up for the playoffs, it will spell a lot of trouble for the rest of the Western Conference.
1. LARRY SANDERS
Hardly anyone is talking about the Bucks. With a starting backcourt of Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis the Bucks have offensive firepower (albeit SUPER streaky) that can be hard to match. With the recent addition of sharpshooter J.J. Redick they have only gotten more lethal.
In the playoffs though, scoring is harder, and the game often settles into a half-court affair. This is where they will need Larry Sanders. Sanders provided Milwaukee with 2.5 defensive win shares this season, and is surprisingly leading the league in blocked shots with nearly 3.2 per game — topping OKC’s Serge Ibaka. Sanders can keep teams from getting easy points in the paint and often ignite fast breaks for Milwaukee.
Defense becomes even more important in the slower paced postseason and Sanders must maintain his paint presence for the Bucks. Currently, the Bucks have a defensive rating of 101.4 points per 100 possessions, good enough for 11th overall in the NBA. Offensively, Sanders hasn’t yet had the same type of impact, but his athleticism and soft touch should lead to some easy points down low.
As it stands now, Milwaukee would face the Heat in the playoffs. That’s a recipe for disaster. But if they can put a string of wins together and climb above Boston in the standings, Sanders’ play could be the catalyst for a surprising second round appearance.
Who will be the biggest x-factor in the playoffs this year?
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