The midpoint of the 2018 NFL season is officially upon us, with eight weeks in the books and eight weeks still to come after the completion of Week 9. To this point, things have gone well in this space and, with another winning performance in Week 8, we enter this particular slate with confidence and positive mojo.
Before getting to the five-pick group for Week 9 and fading the public as usual, let’s take a glance at where our season-long record is at this juncture.
- Week 8: 3-2
- 2018 Season: 23-15-2
Come get these winners.
Oakland Raiders (+3) over San Francisco 49ers
I hope you were able to jump on this with the opening line at 4 but we’ll gladly take 3 anyway. I’m not entirely sure that the Raiders are better than the Niners but, with questions about CJ Beathard’s availability in this spot, Oakland shouldn’t be catching a full field goal in San Francisco. Yes, the Raiders are a disaster but they also employ a real, live NFL quarterback in Derek Carr and that helps to push this over the line for me. Take the candy on a Thursday night.
Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) over Washington
This is another spot where the opening line of 3 would have been preferable but Atlanta remains the right side. Washington’s defense has been very impressive in recent days, leading to a situation in which it makes them favored. However, the Falcons are coming off a bye week and this is the proverbial “kitchen sink” game for Dan Quinn’s team, as a loss would all but eliminate Atlanta from serious playoff contention. It’s never fun to bet on the Falcons away from home but, despite the win-loss records, the visiting team is the right side.
Denver Broncos (-1) over Houston Texans
This game opened at PK and moved toward Denver, despite the fact that the Texans are the public side. That indicator is already something we love but, beyond that, file this under a spot in which it makes perfect sense to fade Houston. The Texans have won five straight, leading this line to be at least two points off, and Denver is undervalued in the market. The Broncos already have five losses but four of those came to the Rams, Chiefs (twice) and Ravens. The small home favorite is the move.
Los Angeles Chargers (+2) over Seattle Seahawks
Sometimes, it’s simple. I don’t believe in the Seahawks. Seattle is favored for a reason, as they’ve been impressive the last two weeks and have always been a good home team in the Russell Wilson era. However, the Chargers are better from top to bottom and this should probably be a PK at this juncture. It’s a small thing, but grabbing two points (even on the road) is more than enough to get me to pull the trigger.
Tennessee Titans (+6.5) over Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are always a public side and that is doubly true on Monday night. To be fair, there was some early sharp money on Dallas to move this line a bit and I wouldn’t have been all over the Titans at the opening line of 4. Still, there is too much value to ignore after all of the line movement, as this line implies that the Cowboys are more than a field goal better than the Titans on a neutral field. That simply isn’t the case and, with both teams coming off bye weeks, there is no advantage to be gained. In my mind, Tennessee is the only side you can take.
